Bah Ndaw Stays in Power
Political event
The Military Coup against Bah Ndaw is foiled by the CIA, and American Black Ops successfully defeats the Military. Soon after France quadruples its military aid of the country and a full re-staffing of the Military command staff is put underway.
Evidence of Russian Collusion surfaces, America exposes this to the UN and Russian legitimacy is questioned again. Russia claims America caused and then foiled the plot in order to slander Russia. This is partly true.
The CIA in 2020 did spot the incoming coup but elected to not do anything about it. However, after the Capitial Siege earlier in 2021, they had considerably more resources and could defeat the Cold War-esq coup before it could destabilise Mali.
This keeps Mali within the African Union.