Transhuman world fully autonomous automobiles
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fully autonomous automobiles

2023


Level 5, fully autonomous cars and trucks are now being sold. Most governments legalize them. Accident rates are less than half that of human drivers in all conditions. Accident rates are an order of magnitude less than that of human drivers in boring conditions. Accident rates between level 5 vehicles in active communication are two orders of magnitude lower accident rates between human drivers.   Private vehicle ownership rates plummet. Truck driving employment rates plummet. The average age of the truck driving workforce at this point is 54. Unemployed elderly truck drivers are difficult to retrain and most end up doing unskilled labor. Taxi services experience rapid growth. The automobile manufacturing industry experiences massive changes. Since taxis are utilized much more efficiently than private automobiles, total vehicle sales plummet. Previously the automotive industry revolved around rapid and efficient iteration of style. Taxi services care much less about style and much more about cost of purchase and cost of ownership. Taxi vehicles become more utilitarian and conservative. A new class of one person and two person sub compact taxi vehicles becomes the most popular taxi vehicles as most trips are just a single person without cargo.   A sizable minority of the population continue to own personal vehicles as a fashion statement, as a form of conspicuous consumption, as a philosophical statement, because their rural location renders taxi use impractical, or out of a pathological need for control. These car enthusiasts mostly want cars which make a strong statement. The part of the auto industry which caters to them becomes more boutique. At a time when the major auto companies are rapidly contracting or going bankrupt, many new boutique auto brands launch and grow. Production runs are very small. Costs are higher as a result. Buyers hold on to their vehicles much longer due to much better maintenance. The cost of marketing decreases as these buyers tend to be very familiar with product lines and are more easily targeted with niche advertising. Many of these enthusiast vehicles still burn fossil fuels, but most nations require large tax payments to offset carbon emissions.   Essentially no autonomous taxis burn fossil fuels, accelerating the reduction in demand for gasoline and diesel.   Cities begin dissolving their public transportation systems. Poor people are instead given subsidized or free ticket prices for taxi services.   Auto repair shops have been contracting for years as electric vehicles require far less maintenance than internal combustion vehicles. The rise of the autonomous taxi services accelerates this rate of contraction as taxi services maintain their own vehicles.   Self driving AI continues to improve after this point. After several years, some AIs are granted level 6 certification which essentially grants them the right to ignore traffic laws so long as doing so is not dangerous or unduly alarming to nearby humans. In situations where a level 6 vehicle is able to clearly see all incoming traffic and pedestrians (usually by networking with open access stationary cameras and the sensors of other level 6 vehicles in the area).

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