War for Dol Guldor
At first, I was annoyed with the main narrative because so many Easterlings were diverted away from Gondor. But looking at the logistics of that invasion, it seems like at least some diversions would be justified. The result is enough troops to carry on some form of war in the north. But due to geography, it is unlikely that there would be any other Mordor allied troops in the theater. This would be an Easterling centric affair.
The Conflict
Prelude
Now, Mordor would struggle to get all its troops to Minas Tirith. The result is some alternative would be needed to deal with the extra. There is also the problem of the allies of Gondor to the North. The Corsairs and Southrons (plus the lack of other nations to the south), means that little to no threats would come from the south. But the north is a whole other ball game. Rohan, Lothorian, Moria, Dale, Rivendell, Mirkwood and the Lonely Mountain would all pose a threat. The Battle of Dale would go only so far in dealing with this. So, the Easterling forces that could not make it to Minas Tirith or Dale would likely be sent to Dol Guldur as a reserve. Normally, the war between Isengard and Rohan could have been expected to at least distract Rohan long enough for Gondor to be defeated. But the destruction of Isengard prior to or at Helm's Deep would leave Rohan intact and able to reinforce Gondor. Plus, a key ally and economic power would be stripped from Mordor's coalition. To me, this would mean that these Easterlings would be sent to rectify that. This means the conquest of Rohan and the occupation of Isengard. But the Eagles and Ents are already mobilized. Certainly the elves in Lothorien (as a minimum) would not take too kindly to this. If we do not get an open battle with the ents and eagles in the war against Isengard, one will happen now. But I don't think the full force of Rohan would be directly involved. The alliance with Gondor would mean that they would need to get there to be of aid. Plus, the ents, eagles and elves would probably offer to pick up the slack. Some Rohirrim would most certainly be there. Perhaps the roughly 6,000 gap between who was sent to Minas Tirith and the 12,000 theoretical maximum mobilization of Rohan. But the army the Easterlings would seek to cut off would be able to go around using the secret path they used to get to Minas Tirith in the books. A force of 225,600 men marching through an area would be impossible to mask. Lets say that nothing Isengard did led to much mobilization of states in the area. This sized force would provoke such a response, for no other reason than the security dilemma. Even if Mordor was seeking just to station those troops in Dol Guldor and do nothing with them, it would still produce a response. Rohan, Mirkwood, Lothlorien, Moria, the ents and eagles all could justify seeing these troops moving into the area as hostile to them. Which means that they would mobilize for self defense even if alliance obligations do not factor in. This is where the White Council will be the most useful. Radagast was part of the book version of the council, and we already established his importance in organizing the ents and eagles for the defeat of Isengard. Lothlorien and Rivendell are represented on the council and have cultural links to Mirkwood - if not close trade links and alliances. Rivendell would also have similar links to the Eagles and Moria. Lothlorien would have similar links with the ents and Rohan. So the White Council would be able to coordinate a large military response. A common command and control structure and plan of action would materialize relatively quickly. This is where Galadriel's impressive powers would be most applicable. She was able to predict the future and communicate long distances via thoughts. Basically, she would find out sooner than most would. Perhaps only Rohan would know sooner that she would. Mirkwood might not even know what is coming before she does. Then - here telepathy would allow for getting the word out so much faster than traditional medieval means allow. Which then means the mobilization of the White Council's resources would be pretty far along relative to what we would see in real life.
Deployment
So, how many Easterlings would be sent to Dol Guldor? I suspect that 2 legions would be tied down in the siege of Cair Andros. Another 6 would be sent down to Minas Tirith. The Dale campaign I suspect would see another 6. I think that there would be 1.3 auxilia brigades for each legion. Which means two or three to Cair Andros, 8 to Minas Tirith and another 8 to the Dale Campaign. 17 of these brigades would be left to run the border forts.
This gives us a force of 31 legions and 20 auxilia brigades. This force would be sent to occupy Dol Guldor as a contingency force. Essentially, it would be there to deal with whatever threats arise. It would be best suited to block reinforcements from Rohan, Lothlorien, Moria and possibly Rivendell. It could also counter adverse developments from Isengard - its betrayal or defeat. Or it could send aid to Cair Andros, Dale or Minas Tirith as the situation demands.This gives us a force of 148,800 legionnaires and 76,800 Auxilia.
The difficult question for me is the number of orcs available to the Ring Wraith stationed at Dol Guldor. These forces would be under Sauron's command. His main foe would be Gondor. Gondor's main strong point is defense - which requires higher numbers to overcome. Mordor prefers to use such high numbers to solve problems. So it seems likely that the majority of this force would be transferred to Mordor. Dol Guldor would primarily be used as a tool for the Wraith to continue his search. The bats, spiders, trolls, wargs and assorted orcs and goblins that are native to the area or on the way to Mordor. Then there is the fact that some of the orcs went south to join Isengard.
Based on the numbers for both books and movies, this could be anywhere between 10 to 30 thousand orcs. It would be likely that the majority would be sent on, but a small force would be useful. So I'm going to assume that only the most basic garrison would be held here. Most likely all those that Sauron would feel useful would have already been sent down. After all, the defeats in the Misty Mountains were decades before.
Not only would Sauron want to have so many orcs somewhere else, that sized army might provoke a response. Dol Guldor is extremely useful for looking for the One Ring - which was suspected to be in the area in the Anduin. Plus, thw world would be on high alert after the discoveries in the fighting. A huge army forming in Dol Guldor would surely provoke a response from the Free People. Which means a small force. Probably just the Wraith commanding the garrison and those he uses to search and rebuild the fort.
I'll say that the movie numbers hold to a certain degree. The main force would be gone. Instead, the 450 orcs that went to fight in the Battle of Five Armies from Goblin Town would be left. So would the 800 bats. Then there were "several hundred" wargs and 25-30 trolls. There were 55 orges in the movies. Due to the ambiguity about what those actually are (half trolls? Another name for troll like goblin for orc?) I'll say 85 trolls.
The question becomes how many of each nation allied with the Free People. Rohan by this point would be bound by its alliance obligations to send troops to Minas Tirith. But some would be needed to deal with this Easterling attack. So I suspect that the 6,000 held back for home defense would be retained from the official narrative. The size of the Easterling force would demand from both Mirkwood and Lothlorien a full brigade with two 2,400 regiments in them. Rivendell might also send one regiment. Lets also assume that the same ent force that I have attack Isengard mobilizes here - which means 50 ents and 1,000 huorns.
Moria is a bit harder to calculate as we have no firm foundations of what their population would be. But in the same time frame that Moria would have to rebuild, the Lonely Mountain went from zero soldiers to fielding 100,000. So I'll take that as the numbers here.
The exact size of the eagle force would also be difficult to establish. We have a total of 4,676 to work with. Many of these would be living near the coming battlefield. Plus, they would see their food as threatened, similar to how I justify their interventions against Isengard. Some would be too young or old, needed to protect those eagles or be too far away. So 1,000 would not be unreasonable.
The Engagement
So. The plan would be relatively simple. At first anyway. The Easterling force would most likely be able to get into Dol Guldor with little impediment. It is located in the area the elves abandoned. More importantly, it appears that sections of Rhun are closer to Dol Guldor than the settled area of Mirkwood. The distances from the Black Gate to Dol Guldor appears to be great enough that the Easterlings would have issues beating the elves to the area.
This is where Galadriel and Isengard come most obviously into play. Isengard would have forced Mordor to accelerate his plans. So all the Easterlings might not have made it to the Black Gate in time. So some legions - especially those from further east - might actually be closer to Dol Guldor than some of the quicker to mobilize units. There are points in route where this is possible. Galadriel also would see the White Council's forces ready to fight sooner than one would expect otherwise. The thorny process of mobilizing and deploying such a massive force from different nations would have been started earlier.
But expecting the Free People to wholly mobilize and be in the area ready to fight before the Easterlings is still a bit of a reach. Mirkwood's forces most certainly would be in the area though. We have to remember that prior to Sauron's influence here, this was part of Mirkwood's domain. So the elven forts would likely still be set up. Probably in a state of disrepair, but still standing. After all, Sauron's presence was short from the perspective of immortal elves. So they would be likely built to last.
Mirkwood would just need to get its troops down as fast as possible. Which would happen. They would be the closest force and light infantry is a highly mobile force. Also, 225,600 enemies approaching an area would be a powerful motivating force. There is no reason their soldiers would not be in place. Any gap between the arrival of the Mirkwood Elves and the Easterlings would be used repairing and upgrading the local defenses abandoned years ago.
Then they would be caught between the Wraiths, their orcs and spiders on one side and the Easterlings on the other. If there would be any force that can handle this, it would be the Mirkwood Elves. They are fighting with home field advantage. Plus, the bats and spiders would probably be enemies they are well suited to fight against. The trolls are powerful but small in numbers. The goblins are way to few to make a difference.
The real problem would be the surprise. This force would strike from behind and would not be something the elves would be expecting. After all, the Wraith would have been going out of his way to remain secret. Yes, the forces available would be effective in harassing attacks before this battle. But one would need to make keeping the base secret the top priority. If it is lost, there goes the main forward post to find the One Ring. But now, there is nothing to be gained from holding back. The coming battle needs to be won now or the base is lost.
Which means a full force attack once the Elves are engaged with the Easterlings. One thing that the surprise attack from Dol Guldor would be stupid not to utilize is fire. The orcs setting fire to the forest would probably be the first indication of their presence. Then, the bats, spiders, wargs and trolls would be perfect for maintaining pressure as the elves retreat. This would cause heavy losses and probably lead to them getting trapped. But the result would be a series of ambushes and the firing down from trees and watch towers. The forces from Dol Guldor probably would not win the battle. But enough damage would have been done that the outer perimeter would be breached.
The problem is that the Easterlings are heavy infantry based. Heavy infantry essentially requires tight, dense formations and high numbers to be effective. But the hilly terrain, large trees and incredible darkness of Mirkwood would make this impossible to maintain and the most obvious target for the Elves. It would almost be like the Elves would be fighting in a way specifically calculated to make the Easterlings have a bad day. They would suffer significantly higher losses for every step forward than we see in any other battle.
But through sheer force of numbers, the Easterlings would continue to make progress. Eventually the elves would be forced back to the core fortified area. This would be too much for them to take through unprepared assault. So the Easterlings would attempt to regroup and gear up for siege.
Two complicating factors would be in play though. Most obviously, the burning of the forest when both sides has medieval at best technology makes it unlikely that the Easterlings would be be able to set up their field works. The result would their armies being forced outside the burn area. Probably in the open fields outside the forest. They would probably plan to wait out the blaze and attack when it is safe to reenter.
This is where the other main complicating factor shows up - literally. The armies coming to the aid of Mirkwood would probably show up now. Any temptation to slow down would be eliminated by the sight of the forest on fire. As the Easterlings are still setting up their camps, they would become the trapped party. One side would be the reinforcements, the other the same burning forest they would be fleeing from.
If it were the elves, Rohirrim or dwarves alone, it would be pretty even I think. The Easterlings have a huge and professional force present. Also, one of the few if only armies with significantly developed combined arms formations. But they are up against all three of these. Which confers the best heavy infantry, heavy cavalry and light infantry all in one army. And with decent numbers too. Then there is the only remaining artillery power in the Ents and the only air force of Middle Earth in the form of the Eagles.
The Elves would probably form the archer core behind the dwarves. The dwarven skirmishers would take the front. Meanwhile, the Ents would perform a hurricane bombardment prior to the advance and switch to a creeping barrage once the attacks begin. The Rohirrim would be held in reserve to exploit the breakthrough. Ideally, they would do both - hit the weak points to shatter the enemy while also chasing down the rout. Meanwhile, the eagles would be aiming to destroy their supplies, equipment and whatever field works they have set up. Add in the Huorns protecting the flanks. The combined effect is one that I don't see anyone coming back from. Not to say this would be an easy victory - just inevitable. They have largest force of professional soldiers in Middle Earth, plus the advantages of Rome's organization structure and Sparta's training.
Outcome
So, the Easterlings lose. I suspect that their training would mean their resistance would be much longer than most other armies. Add in the fact that the mission came from Sauron - their deity. Nothing like a good holy war to provide motivation. Then there is the issue that they would be trapped. Plus the impact of the eagles and Rohirrim. So huge numbers of Easterlings would be killed and captured.
Aftermath
The Easterlings pose two of the major issues regarding the aftermath. The first is how many of their troops actually escape the battle. For this I will be looking at the Battle of Stalingrad. Basically it involved massive a defeat of the attacking armies through encirclement. Plus, the use of heavy artillery and air power to directly attack the enemy. At Stalingrad, the Germans had 1,040,000 at the time of the Soviet counterattack. Between 647,300–868,374 of these were lost - or 62% and 83%.
Now, I don't think that all of the Easterlings would be wiped out. Basically, they would be too good at fighting - some would be able to break out. But the combination of their discipline and fighting spirit makes me think that they would take higher casualties before breaking. But this is where you would start to see class divisions begin to express themselves. The class forming the legions would be the better trained, more disciplined and more militaristic. They would be less likely to either flee or surrender. But fleeing would be preferable to surrender. The Auxilia meanwhile have less motive to fight and are less well trained. After all, they were not raised from birth to be soldiers. But it is highly unlikely to expect wither group to truly be willing and able to fight to the last man with no surrenders. Nor would the Free People be willing and able to capture or kill every single enemy soldier here.
All that to say that I think that the breakdown would be 139,872(62%) killed, 47,376 (21%) captured and 38,352 (17%) flee. I suspect that the 17% would be mostly the remaining fragments of a huge number of mostly wiped out legions. Though a few auxilia would be present. Though there were fewer total of these units and they would be more willing to surrender. So I'm going to say 28,764 legionaries and 9,588 auxilia.
Also important is what happens to these surviving troops. First off, these would be the soldiers pursued by Rohirrim and eagles. They would take even further losses as the survivors attempt to get away. Then, the forces of Rhovanion would have been already mobilized to deal with the attacks coming from other Easterling forces. Which further complicates their ability to move through the area. But I think that the result would be a few of them are able to make it to Lake-town and meet up with the force sent to attack there.
The biggest issue is how exactly the newly victorious armies of the Free People respond. The attack on Dale and the Lonely Mountain would be progressing. So too would the invasion of Gondor. This would be a problem with no clear answer. I suspect that Rohan, Lothlorien, the Ents and Eagles would see Mordor as the main threat. Mirkwood would see the Easterlings attacking to their north a major threat they cannot afford to ignore. Especially if the Easterlings move on Lake Town. Moria would be torn. Rohan is their ally. Gondor would be a valuable partner too. But the Lonely Mountain and the Iron Hills are the other major dwarf kingdoms. Both would be in the path of the Easterling advance.
So I think that Mirkwood would break off to deal with the remaining Easterling threat in the north. Moria would probably split its remaining forces. Some would march to protect Gondor and the rest to reinforce the Lonely Mountain. Rohan would probably leave a small force to continue pursuing the Easterlings fleeing the Dol Guldor disaster. The rest would be sent back to reinforce Gondor. Lothlorien would also send most of its men to Minas Tirith. The Ents would move to reinforce Gondor. The Eagles would be split. Those already chasing the Easterlings would continue. But those from the White Mountains would probably move south.
Just as important would be the Wraith. Given the fact that the Free People were not expecting one, it seems unlikely that one of the special Wraith hunting teams would be on hand to deal with it. So after this battle, you would have a technically alive Wraith. But one humiliated and stripped of his forces and base of operation. Basically, sticking around would be dangerous and do no good. He would probably then move south to help the attacks on Gondor.
Remove these ads. Join the Worldbuilders Guild
Comments