Siege of Minas Tirith

So, the Fall of Constantinople is the inspiration of the Siege of Minas Tirith. Gondor is the stand in for the Byzantine Empire while Mordor is the Ottoman stand in. The main obvious difference at first glance is the fact the "Byzantines" win. Lets at first look at the history of the real life battle to see if there was any room for improvement on the Byzantine side that could help Gondor win their battle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8W0OTGQEY8E&list=WL&index=1
Like Minas Tirith, Constantinople had gone through a long period of decline. Its population at this point was between 50,000 and 100,000 people. The decline was so bad that there was enough empty land for farming inside the walls. It was surrounded on all sides by the attacking Ottomans. The previous Sultan had defeated many of the local Balkan States that could have provided help (interestingly including one that used light cavalry and extensive raiding). Other major powers were not interested in yet another Crusade. Ottoman treaties with Venice and Hungary further consolidated this isolation.
The attack started with the Ottomans building a fort to the north to prevent ships from the Black Sea reinforcing the city. Once it was finished, a blockade could not be escaped. Calls for help were sent out by the Byzantine Emperor. Meanwhile, he moved citizens inside the walls and began stockpiling supplies. Outside 1,000 mercenaries from Venice, the pleas were ignored.
The attacking Ottomans had 69 cannons, 126 ships and an impressive 100,000 men. You know, more than the entire population of the city they were attacking. Some sources state that the defenders had as many as 7,000 professional troops. This was reinforced by 500 defectors from the Ottoman ranks and the above mentioned 1,000 mercenaries. The Byzantines also had 26 ships and around 15 cannons. There was also 30,000 people pressed into government service by the Byzantines. No information on their use or roles though.
The Byzantines relied on the Italian troops for the commanders responsible for each section of walls. The Byzantine Emperor stayed in his palace with reserve troops. A massive chain was used to block water access to the city. The Ottoman army arrived and set up camp. At this point, the cannons were moved into place. Their bombardment had little impact at first. Though this was partly due to the mind blowing three hours it took to reload each cannon, which allowed the defenders to repair the damage between each shot.
The first attempt to assault the walls involves an easily defeated attack by Ottoman light infantry. Ottoman heavy artillery was knocked out in an accident, leaving their even more ineffective light artillery to carry on. This bombardment continued for the duration of the siege. Byzantine light infantry sally attacks were not able to do much to capitalize on this though. Ottoman forces attempted to switch to night attacks, which at this point did nothing of note either. The chain on the water paid off as well, as Ottoman ships failed to break through. A running theme of the battle thus far.
This is where the Ottomans start to get creative. They actually lifted their ships onto land on the far side of the water and carried them behind the chain. Byzantine attempts to use their Greek Fire failed to defend against this surprise attack. Even with the use of cannons from inside the city walls, the Byzantine navy was either destroyed or forced into their harbors. The sailors were moved to land and joined the defenders on the walls. This would prove devastating. The Byzantines now had to deploy their already scarce manpower to defend the northern walls, meaning the sections facing the main Ottoman army were weakened.
At this point, things start to get interesting. Cannons were able to breach one of the gates. A night assault almost took the area. This was stopped by the mercenary captain. Similar events occurred at the gate near the palace the Emperor was operating from. These near successes suggested the end was near. The Sultan ordered a massive bombardment and light infantry attack. This too failed. But another one of the gates was partially destroyed.
Although the 3,000 strong Jannissary force again was unable to breach the walls, it did occupy one of the towers and plant the Ottoman flag on top. The battle also led to the leader of the Italian Mercenaries getting badly wounded. These two things led to a few hundred Jannissaries getting inside the walls. The defenders routed. Soldiers and citizens alike attempted to flee using the ships in the harbors. There are some sources that say the Emperor and his remaining guards attempted one last stand at the breached gates, but was killed for his efforts. The Ottoman victory was assured.
The book and movie battles did follow pretty similar paths, but differ in several respects. In the book, Mordor’s army shows up, digs trenches around the city and sets up siege engines. Then it starts shooting into the first ring of the city and setting it on fire. Both sides shoot arrows at each other, doing a decent amount of damage to each other in the process. Siege towers are sent to the walls as a diversion.
The main attack comes when Grond, the battering ram way too big to be practical in real life makes it to the main gate. Apparently, Mordor attempted to breach the gate without using it, simply wasting troops. Rohan showed up at this exact moment, using a secret road to bypass Mordor’s fieldwork. They rout the enemy at first and gain a pretty good amount of ground. The witch king and Theoden are killed at this point, but Mordor rallies and counterattacks as Rohan and Gondor begin to lose hope. Aragorn shows up, surprising both sides and launching an attack on an exposed flank. This, combined with renewed drives from Rohan and the garrison troops, effectively wins the battle.
The battle in the movie starts much the same way, just without the trenches being built before combat starts. The catapults target the walls instead of the first level for destruction, with human heads being sent over the walls. The ring wraiths are more active at this point, hunting and destroying Gondor’s artillery. Many of the siege towers are destroyed, but not all. Surprisingly few of Mordor’s catapults are hit. But like in the books, both shoot arrows at the others. Flaming catapult shots are apparently saved to night, but successful in causing fires.
The attempt to break into the gate plays out mostly the same, but they are not stopped by timely reinforcements once it happens. Again, they waste troops on futile attacks before bringing in the big guns. Rearguard actions follow as orcs swarm into the city. The garrison retreats from each level as pressure threatens a breakthrough. This is where Rohan arrives. Repeat the same basic pattern as above.
Basically, just shoot a bunch of arrows and rocks at the walls. Then attack the walls in a way you know will not work before all those arrows and rocks are able to do enough damage to give you a shot. Then attack the gate with crap you know will not work. Then use the battering ram you had from the beginning and made just for the occasion. Mordor was kinda stupid. Gondor’s tactics were actually quite brilliant in response – hold until the last chance, then orderly retreat. When reinforcements arrive, exploit the surprise then retreat when momentum was lost. Repeat until victory.
Even without modifications to the defenses of the city, Mordor could have seriously benefited from a better general. Should the initial bombardment and arrow fire have been aimed more at keeping the enemy artillery and archers from counter firing while they moved Grond up the second the fieldwork were in place, the breach would have come much sooner. Then, it would be possible to occupy the outer city walls when the reinforcements arrive, catching them between their own nominally allied walls and Mordor’s reserves, including war elephants. The orcs in the city could then continue some form of advance into the city at the same time. Admittedly this would be a bit lighter during the battle with the reinforcements.

The Conflict

Prelude

When we look at events, they transpired due to the machinations of Gandalf and Sauron. Gandalf sent the dwarves on their quest that killed Smaug. Gandalf then identified the One Ring and was responsible for developing the plan to destroy it – the operation that won the entire conflict by itself. This also led to the killing of the balrog, denying Sauron another useful asset. Sauron corrupted Sauruman, which led to Helm’s Deep. Gandalf’s actions led to a victory there. Then, he took over the defense of Minas Tirith, leading to actual resistance there and thus victory for the good guys. Also, Sauron corrupted Denethor, so that otherwise the garrison would have abandoned their posts – making this commentary irrelevant. Aragorn was acting in a way that benefited Gandalf’s overall plan.

Deployment

For comparison lets look at the Fall of Constantinople for a minute here. This is the battle that the Battle of Minas Tirith is based on. The walls can be compared to each other as well (as I do later). The Byzantines had between 7,000 to 10,600 men. The Ottomans had 56,500 to 91,500. The ratios are then between 5 and 13 attackers per defenders. In an extremely and unjustifiably optimistic battle between Gondor’s professional army and Easterling’s smaller force, that number would be 86 attackers to defenders. The even more optimistic version would have just the Spartiate legions, giving us 43 to one. Yes, Gondor would have the troops from the nobles and the Easterlings would have other priorities. But Mordor also sent the Haradrim, Corsairs of Umbar and its own orcs into the fray. The Battle of Minas Tirith was meant to be overwhelming in its scope. Yet in my analysis here, the battle as presented would be a best case scenario.
So - what forces would be in play in the battle? First, lets look at Gondor for a second as their forces would be a bit more complex to establish. We know that the fears of the Southern Fiefs led them to hold back a huge amount of their forces. This seems logical as the local lord would have to provide for their own defense. Until the Southrons and Corsairs are defeated, there would be serious threats to the Southern Fiefs that would demand the lord's attention. But at least some would need to be sent to Minas Tirith. So I think the force sent in the books of 2,800 would be logical. This means 311 knights, 311 light cavalry 933 mounted archers and 933 infantry.
The Tower Guard would probably be fully mobilized. This means that 700 "elite" troops would be deployed to protect key officials and buildings. But probably only the lower 200 would be what classifies as truly elite. Most of these would be concentrated in the citadel area protecting the Steward. Then there would be the 2,438 Urban Cohorts on foot and 562 mounted. I estimate in the section of Gondor's professional army that 1,500 professional troops would be stationed here.
The reinforcements on their way would also include the 45,000 Oathbreakers of the Armies of the Dead. Plus 30 from the Grey Company of Northern Rangers. The Southern Contingent of reinforcements would also include the remaining 16,800 from the Southern Fiefs.
The invasion force would involve the remaining Easterlings. After all the diversions of resources to other fronts, I think 6 legions and 6 auxilia brigades would be present. That means 51,040 Easterlings. Mordor would have 260,300 orcs and 3,570 trolls. Due to the battles in the south, I don't see the Southrons or Corsairs making to Minas Tirith. So their forces would be irrelevant for out purposes.
Let the scope of these numbers sink in here. Mordor’s army in the books is larger than the entire crusading army in the First Crusade. Its force in the movie was larger than the German army attacking Stalingrad. This is around half of the US invasion of Iraq. The book army is almost as much as what the US lost in the entire Vietnam war. It is either 10% or 50% of the entire army of the Roman Empire at its height. Gondor’s forces at Minas Tirith are larger than the entire army of Ireland and Gondor’s entire army is about the size of Serbia’s total army today. Mordor’s army (just at Minas Tirith) is about the size of Cuba’s entire army in the books and France’s in the movie. A defeat of Gondor would cause a loss of life equal to the Warsaw Uprising.
Beyond that, I would have an internal division of troops – the lower level troops manning the walls while the Tower Guard/Urban Cohorts divided into 4 companies like in the book. One would be used for the port. The second would be stationed up in the upper level defending the buildings of essentially the high command. The third would operate the trebuchets at the beginning of the battle and be rear guard unit covering the retreat in case of a breach. The last one would be placed at the gatehouse behind the currently besieged area – that way the defenses are secure even before the retreat is forced.
The elves would be present as well. Though I suspect in much lower numbers. Probably just 250 from Rivendell. To make sure that the critical areas are protected, I think 150 would be kept to guard the port and long walls. Another 25 would be stationed in the second level to handle support roles and to help with the evacuation. The remaining 75 would be sent to the outer wall to help with the defenses. This would probably be mainly around the main gate.
Yes, this force is small. But, keep in mind that these would primarily be the soldiers sent to serve as technical advisers and trainers. Their goal would be to help rearm Gondor, not fight the siege. Those meant to fight would most likely be sent into the field to reinforce the Gondorian Rangers. Those in Minas Tirith would be in the city and highly useful in its defense. But they were not meant for that purpose. So the forces would not have been adjusted with fighting in mind.
Which means the defending force would be 8,250 strong. 314,910 enemy troops would be invading. That is roughly 38 times as many invaders as defenders. This is not going to be fun for Gondor.

Battlefield

Another element here needs to be explored – space. One of the major problems the Schleiffen Plan has was literally getting enough men where they could be effective. We are talking whole divisions unable to fight because the front was so crowed with other units in their own army. The result was an invasion that literally could not bring enough forces to bear on the decisive points to have the firepower needed to implement the plan. This helps to somewhat explain why the German invasion of France failed to win in the desired 40 days.
In Minas Tirith, this would be seriously compounded. Each division of orcs would be able to march to Minas Tirith across the 6 kilometer front assigned them. But the frontage to attack at Minas Tirith itself would be at best 3 miles. Once the narrow streets of the main compound becomes the battleground, this would be even worse. This means Mordor would not be able to break through because it would be unable to get enough of its troops close enough to engage Gondor’s soldiers. Meanwhile, the number of troops in the garrison (8,000) have only 40,000 feet of wall space. This means there is 5 feet of space per soldier if they covered all 7 layers at the same time. That means that the garrison can rain death down easily and still have troops to spare.
Harrison, Richard W. The Russian Way of War: Operational Art 1904–1940. Lawrence, Kan.: University Press of Kansas, 2001. ISBN 0-7006-1074-X

The Engagement

Now, for the part those who have patiently read all this way for. The actual fighting that I think would result purely from the changes I made in the defenses of Minas Tirith.
One thing to keep in mind here is the time we have to work with. The One Ring was destroyed during the battle at the Black Gate. That battle took place 10 days after Minas Tirith. Which means – if Mordor attacks directly or tries a wait and starve them out approach, Minas Tirith just needs to last 10 days. After that, Mordor would either be completely destroyed by the destruction of the Ring or would become too strong to stop no matter what tactics Gondor employs. Therefore, Gondor’s best bet is actually a prolonged siege aimed at starving them out. Assaulting the walls is the only thing that would work to defeat Gondor before the clock runs out. Keep in mind the value in in the Black Gate attack was in its diversionary nature. I think keeping the Minas Tirith battle going longer would keep so much of the men, resources and attention of Mordor focused there that Minas Tirith could serve the same function as the Black Gate.
The other element of time is advanced warning. Minas Tirith was attacked 10 days after Helm’s Deep and 5 days after Sauron advertised he was sending out his main army by blanketing all of Gondor with clouds so dark it blotted out the sun. This means that there was plenty of time to prepare Minas Tirith. Supplies are to be stockpiled. Then traps are to be laid along the road and ambush points set up. The second the “Dawnless Day” begins, I would evacuate as many civilians as possible.
And yes, the Dawnless Day was a good move on Sauron's part. Yes, it did advertise the coming attack. But its not like the attack could have been kept secret. Instead there were a lot of upsides. For example, the majority of Sauron's troops were adverse to the sun. Some would be killed. Others would simply be weakened by it and in pain. So the fighting power of his troops would go up.
On the flip side there is human morale. Naturally this would be quite intimidating. Civilians might even panic as a result. Can't exactly blame them for that. Then, there is the disorienting loss of a sense of time. One method of torture involves leaving the victim in total, unending light or dark for days at a time. This takes a strong toll on the poor person victimized by this. The Dawnless Day would effectively victimize an entire culture. Resistance would likely be less than it otherwise be. This effect would also get worse over time.
This would also mean an evacuation of all the villages outside the main walls on the mountains and unessential personnel. Craftsmen and what laborers are expected to be needed to service the garrison should be required to stay. The rest of the 100,000 people in the area would be sent away. This would mean a flood of refugees into the surrounding territories of Gondor, which would be the perfect opportunity to try and scare the local leadership into sending more troops.
So, Gondor’s basic tactics would be the oh so complicated “delay and don’t die” model. There is no point contesting the outer ring when it would essentially be a pitched battle against a force at least 34 times the size of Gondor’s force at this point. Keep in mind a wood fence with one man towers scattered across it is no real long term deterrence. This means that the wall should be held just long enough to cover the retreat of those outside the wall. More likely this area would be empty of Gondor's troops.
Once they hit the second inner ring, the Urban Cohorts should be in place to man the length of the wall and shoot arrows down on the orcs. However, this wall is much easier to take with ladders and break down the gates with battering rams. Thus, a few minutes or hours of battle here would be enough – kill as many orcs as possible, then retreat again as soon as they are able to counterattack. A smaller army (say the Easterlings or Southrons by themselves) might be stopped here, but the full army is entirely different.
The cohorts then can shift to urban guerrilla warfare, conducting ambushes and using traps scattered though the city to again slow down, harass, disperse and kill orcs. This means a few tactical victories are likely as the attacking army gets bogged down in skirmishes around the city. The Cohorts can combine this with burning the city as they retreat. Urban combat in general opens up many smaller opportunities for kill zones. Should the Cohorts set up barricades on streets to cover their retreat, they can effectively slow down pursuit. Put at least 2 ranks of spear men at front to guard it and archers behind to fire over them and you get a nice little impediment. Place archers on rooftops in front of the barricades that only start firing when the enemy troops is surrounded on three sides and a good kill zone is formed for extra damage.
I would not be surprised if a large percentage of the Cohorts die in this, but their objective would not be to stand and fight to the bitter end. This would be a good amount of additional troops that could man the long walls and garrison the port. These survivors could be quite useful in support roles, such as manning gatehouses, trebuchets, replacing deaths of professional troops, handling repairs, message running and medical care. Elves would likely be providing some of these too.
For the garrison, this “delay and don’t die” strategy would look like using the trebuchets to fire at siege engines and archers shooting at any and all orcs that got too close to the walls. Ballistae should aim first at the fell beasts the Ring Wraiths fly then at the trolls and elephants.
Naturally, I expect the port to be abandoned next. I would attempt to hold it as long as possible here due to its importance in getting supplies. The defenders would would still be forced into a retreat. But this would be after a longer time than the main city and after making Mordor pay more dearly. Honestly, due to the lack of reserves, it would probably be best to instead deploy this force to clear the way to the port when Aragorn arrives. Though if the Urban Cohorts are able to make it out somewhat intact, they could aid the port defenses.
The men on the walls would fight as hard as possible for as long as possible. When defeat at that level looks likely, they would retreat to the next level before the breach actually occurs and they still have time for an orderly retreat – but not a moment before. This is to be similar to how the garrison operated in the movie. The loss of the outer walls and the use of reserves would work to the benefit of Gondor. This would allow rotating troops inward to rest for a period before going back into battle. If it came to this, all remaining troops would take refuge in the White Tower to fight to the last man.
Now comes the part you have been waiting for. Mordor. How would they overcome the new defenses? Could they even do that?First, I have to look at the timing of the attack itself. I don’t see any justification for the delay between the attack on Osgiliath and the march on Minas Tirith we seen in the main story. That telegraphed the coming attack on Minas Tirith and allowed for better preparations. Instead, Mordor’s forces should attack all at once, marching clear across Gondor in a single advance, not allowing the defenders to consolidate a new line of defense.
So the Dawnless Day telegraphs the coming attack. Mordor's army not pausing after Osgiliath means that that Gondor’s time to prepare would go way down, but they would have enough time to set up the traps, shore up physical defenses, gather supplies and otherwise do last minute preparations – even if a full militia training can’t be completed. While this would still leave Minas Tirith ready, it would not be as well braced as it could be.
Remember, Gondor's plan is a fighting retreat and setting fires that would significantly reduce attack speed. The defenders need to be defeated as soon as possible to keep them from getting back to the city. This means sending out mounted troops, trolls and Ring Wraiths to kill them in hot pursuit. Flechettes are weapons not really used in the medieval period, but this is only because of the lack of air power. The ability to make them is possible with available technology and the logic is fairly simple. So, I would expect the Ring Wraiths would have them and rain them down on the retreating forces. At this point, Mordor should aim to bait the rest of the defenders to sally forth in an attempt to rescue these retreating allies. This did happen when Gondor got beat badly in the attempted retaking of Osgiliath in both books and movies. If this happens, the blitz would be able to defeat a higher proportion of enemy troops.
By this point, the fact the attack is coming would be pretty clear and the evacuation of civilians would be underway. As Fell Beasts would not be too useful in the sort of urban combat now faced by Mordor, I would then divert them to kill the evacuating civilians and destroy the ships. The more ships Gondor has at its disposal makes it easier to get supplies. Every civilian killed does morale damage and everyone not able to leave takes up supplies needed to survive a prolonged siege.
Now, against guerrilla combat, you want to keep your forces concentrated. The more you disperse your forces, the more you become vulnerable to small scale ambushes and limited tactical successes that bleed your overall forces and speed. So, Mordor would use the trolls to punch a hole in the built up urban area by destroying buildings. The idea is to clear a path big enough to march the main army through. The idea with this is to open a corridor not vulnerable to the sort of fires that think Gondor would want to set. The Easterlings would then form the outer ranks around the orcs so that any attacks by the defenders would be met with the best infantry in Middle Earth outside the Elves. The entire army would try and advance as a single force, attempting to get to the main fortress gate intact and before the defenders do. This would then cut off the garrison from useful troops and leave those isolated no hope of ultimate survival.
There are multiple possibilities for what would happen if this is successful. First one is the Cohorts would attempt a pitched battle, attacking from the rear and pinning the forces of Mordor between themselves and the walls. This would likely be a total defeat, but would do some damage to Mordor. The second would be to attempt a retreat to the river, then use small ships to go to the port and link up with the garrison that way. A middle road is more likely – using the urban guerilla warfare to bleed the attacking forces, force as many away from the gates once they get there then burn the city as they are forced out. Then, the standard fighting retreat pattern emerges. Mordor pursues, Gondor uses the ample urban cover to ambush and kill the enemy, then exploiting the delays to burn areas and provide time to get on the ships and to the port.
To compel a response of this sort, the Cohorts can sit around the outside of the Mordor camp at the gates and fire arrows at them. When faced with a siege where every soldier counts, it is extremely unwise to let attacks continue to hit your camp when you have the means to stop it. Mordor would have to choose to ignore these constant losses or engage in the sort of urban warfare that Gondor would have the advantage in. Should the reinforcements arrive during this period, things would go badly. Unexpected troops showing up as you are still struggling to occupy an entire 3.75 sq. mile city does not sound like a good time.
To counter this, the very solid defensive tactics of digging trenches and other fieldwork that Mordor used in the books would not work given the urbanized environment outside the gates that replaced the open plains in the books and movies. Instead, they would have to actually employ the same tactics that Gondor’s troops would be using – barricades manned by spear men on the front ranks and archers behind to block roads and archers in buildings.
Ultimately, I don’t see that as too likely to be successful. The amount of time I would take to advance through and clear a large enough space to advance 200,000 troops down a mile long corridor by building demolitions is a lot longer than what it would take to set fires. Which means Mordor is faced with a situation where it must either march directly through a burning city (such a brilliant idea – probably resulting in massive losses), waiting for the fire to run its course or putting it out itself.
Putting the fires out would be the most likely course for Mordor. Even with intervention, the fire in Rome in 64 AD took six days to be put out – which would have been even longer if no firefighting at all took place. The irony of Mordor having to save parts of a city in order to more completely destroy it is not lost on me.
I have no idea how long it would take to contain the fire enough to get the troops to the main gate, but in the range of 3-5 days does not seem unreasonable. Sound familiar? Yep. That means that just when if not before Mordor is able to clear a path to the main gate, the Aragorn and the Rohirrim would show up. An attack from the rear by a mounted charge driving your troops into a raging urban fire does not sound like a good time, possibly decisive.
Lets assume that it is able to get to the gates before the reinforcements arrive – either through extreme speed or through putting out the fires. Either concurrent to this or after the area is secured, I would have Mordor go after the port. This would include the Ring Wraiths and easterlings. The army would use boats to ferry the Easterlings into the exposed dock area where walling is not present for obvious reasons. The Ring Wraiths would attack from the air with orcs from land. Meanwhile, they would use archers and catapults to lay down suppressing fire so that reinforcements from the main garrison are not sent to the port.
This is essential as it would cut off Aragorn’s easiest landing point and the garrison’s ability to get supplies. There have been sieges where the garrison could be supplied by sea that lasted 10 YEARS. Keep in mind that Mordor has 10 DAYS to take the entire city before the One Ring is destroyed.
Should the port be taken before Aragorn’s arrival, he would then be forced into an amphibious attack. It seems unlikely that Minas Tirith would send aid as Aragorn would arrive in a fleet that makes him look like an enemy. But this would work to his advantage too. Mordor would be taken by surprise as their allied ships turn out to be enemy reinforcements. Then, the 45,000 strong Army of the Dead landing at a single point would be hard to resist. This is especially true when you only have 200,000 troops split between that landing, a mounted attack from another flank and a fortress in front of you and a fire to put out.
At this point, Mordor’s choices become less clear cut. It can either lay siege to the fortress and wait it out or move in for a direct assault. It seems that a siege is set up to fail given the time limits we are working with. Again, this all assumes good timing on the part of Mordor – if they are not able to get to the gate, put out the fires, set up protections on their flanks and push back the Cohort units still fighting in the city, the attack will be destroyed entirely.
A direct assault would be much more likely. I suspect this would bear out much the same way I describe the Helm’s Deep battle. Catapults would fire corpses over the walls to intimidate the garrison. Maybe to introduce disease as well - like the Great Plague. Harassment fire from archers should be maintained to at least cause exhaustion and cause at least a few deaths every day. Noise would be used for the same purposes.
One thing that would be different is the possibility to poison water supplies. Granted Minas Tirith would probably have some form of cistern and rainwater collection system, an aqueduct system through the mountains like the Romans did would probably be needed too. A few orcs would be sent to poison this system and cause major problems. The introduction of the Ring Wraiths would be a major difference too, able to possibly take out the trebuchets. I would be careful with the Ring Wraiths at this stage though – the hoardings on the walls means that archers are protected from the air and the ballistae are able to take down the fell beasts. Too much activity would see them killed. After all, we did see single arrows wound one and one was killed with sword strikes to the neck. Since the fell beasts are impressive and can do a lot of damage, they have no ranged attack like a dragon would. This exposes them to attacks we know are lethal whenever they move in for a kill.
So, basically at this point only the Easterlings and orcs would be at Minas Tirith. So the attacking force would be weaker. But just as importantly, not fatal at first. Mordor's two most powerful armies would still be in action. But the defenses against cavalry would have been seriously reduced. The bill will soon be coming due regarding the supplies of the Easterlings. Should Cair Andros not have fallen or fallen too late, they would be at risk of desertions, starvation or mutiny. Alternatives would need to be found.
We have to remember that orcs are highly nimble, fast and adept at moving in mountains. After days of wasted assaults on the walls, Sauron would probably be desperate. When the supply situation in his armies getting dire, he would probably start attempting to sneak orcs into the White Mountains. We need to remember that Minas Tirith is actually on a hill out from the main mountain with the lolipop looking rear section guarded by only 5 walls. The top of the hill has only two walls along the back. Which would mean the orcs could aim to exploit the fact there are only two walls protecting the back here. So diversionary frontal assaults would be launched to keep the garrison focused forward.
So, what happens when the assault begins in earnest? The book walls are made from the stone that bombardments will not work against. So, what Mordo would split its forces into two groups. The Easterlings and trolls would maintain pressure on the front, using traditional bombardments to hit the inside of the first section. Gondor’s response would probably be similar to that of the Greeks defending against such attacks – fire.
As a side note here, one Greek battle using this tactic saw the defenders digging a hole into their own walls to set fire to the ramp in the middle of it to amplify the damage to it. They then also threw primitive molotov cocktails on the top as a distraction – the attackers thought that the smoke from the inside of the ramp was coming from the bombs hitting the top until it was too late to avoid major damage.
The second would be primarily orcs. These guys would be sent to the rear of the city and slowly work their way through the mountains. Troops marching through the mountains would probably take a while, especially if they are trying to maintain a low profile. Thus, I would allow an additional 3-4 days for the sneak attack to get into place. Meanwhile, with the ramp being built and Ring Wraiths at least flying over the city and doing their best to scare the defenders, most of the garrison’s attention is likely to be focused on the front of the city. A sneak attack at the rear could work, especially if the Easterlings work fast enough to get the ramp into place in that same 3-4 day period.
This adds whole new level of drama not in the books or movies. Think about a sneak attack by troops coming through the mountains to attack a relatively undefended area right at the heart of Minas Tirith – where the leadership is housed and only protected by mostly unmanned two walls at this point. Then add in the sense of impending doom due to this entire time seeing the ramp inch its way closer and closer despite the attempts to burn it and the slaughter of orcs building it.
Now, we have to remember that Minas Tirith is extremely well defended. Like ridiculously so. In mountainous terrain like the rear areas of Minas Tirith, any attackers would struggle to get equipment and supplies up. The Easterlings and trolls, some of Mordor's best troops, would not be able to get up there to participate. Most cities reasonably get by with only one or two rings even without the cover of mountains. So it would be just unsupported orcs attacking a position that most armies would have trouble with. Even with huge numbers, this would be difficult. Essentially, this attack being a knock out blow would require complete surprise.
But there is the fact there is the Tower Guards and two walls. So this would still not be entirely exposed. Just significantly easier than going through the front. A surprise attack like this can be expected to make dangerous levels of progress prior to being stopped. The first wall and possibly the courtyard outside the White Tower would fall. This would essentially isolate the lower levels from the top and leave the leadership in the city cut off from the garrison troops. It would also demand a redistribution of forces away from the front of the city to cover this rear attack. This would leave the front dangerously, possibly fatally, exposed to the Easterling and Trolls - who would be the ideal troops to exploit this vulnerability. No, the city would not fall during the assault. But we can assume that this attack would guarantee eventual defeat.
That gap though is vital. It would allow for the Army of the Dead to get there. Rohan's arrival would materialize as well. This would add significant levels of extra narrative weight to these two events. The suicide of Denethor and Gandalf's battle with the Witch King could be made equally more dramatic too. Lets say the major push at the front breaks Denethor, or he technically is the one who learns of the rear attack first. Perhaps Faramir's wound could come from discovering the approaching army from the mountains instead of in an ill fated attack on Osgiliath. This would break most people I would think, allowing now to be the point where Denethor's despair becomes too much. Gandalf's intervention would not just transfer command over the garrison to himself and save Faramir. It would also expose the danger they face.
This would allow enough of a response to keep the White Tower from falling in the initial assault. This attempt at a killing blow though would logically involve the Witch King attacking the White Tower. Which as noted, is now led by Gandalf - whose Ring provides improved hope in the face of despair and evil. So if Gandalf falls here, it is all over. There would be no commander in chief and the magic sustaining the desperate defense would be lost. Which for our purposes here, the clear domination of Gandalf portrayed in the Movie needs to be retained over the more evenly matched confrontation in the book. Once Gandalf's staff is broken, then have the arrival of the Rohirrim and/or Aragorn.
For the movies, this sneak attack would not work due to Minas Tirith not having the “lolipop handle” with the exposed rear section. Instead, they have damageable walls and a bigger enemy to face. Here, old school direct attacks are both more feasible and the only option. Catapults would shift from harassing fire to actually trying to destroy walls. Orcs would move to fill in the moat and construct the ramp. Ladders would seem pointless as they seem to not add much to overall success. A few towers could be built to move against the walls right next to the gatehouse. Importantly, Mordor would need to build Grond style battering rams that were covered with metal roofs and small enough to move inside the city. The full sized Grond would be pointless as well.
Ideally, what would happen is the frontal assault forces would be able to build the ramp up to the top of the walls between the main gatehouse and the side of the mountain where the next level gate is located. As the orcs begin to attack at the top of the ramp, the towers would be moved into place so that the orcs attack at all points at the same time. The result would be the walls being taken by overwhelming force and a breach that could not be closed at the ramp. The first objective would be to use the position on the walls to take the gates from within. A battering ram should be moved into place to add redundancy to the plan – always a good idea.
When the gatehouse falls, Easterlings and trolls should flood in and aid the orcs in killing any and all Gondor troops they can reach before they get behind the next gatehouse. That should be limited though if the garrison is using the managed retreat strategy. Then it is simply a matter of moving the battering rams up further along the road, breaking down the gates and flooding the breach with Easterlings and trolls before the orcs.
One thing to note with the battle as portrayed in the movie. When the main gate is broken down by Grond, the soldiers responded by trying to fight in the streets. One on one against trolls and Easterlings. When there were walls on both sides that had not fallen yet. The fact that the ground could have been a complete kill zone was ignored. Gondorian troops were totally wasted in a pointless ground battle when there were safe places to stand on and fire down from.
Instead, the garrison should have exploited the towers on the walls to organize a phased retreat. With the gate gone, the troops in it and on the sections of wall next to it should have retreated into the towers next to it. As that tower or the city section around it is occupied and holding a tower become untenable, then they retreat to the next tower in the line. This should continue until the entire wall is evacuated. This keeps as much of the wall manned for as long as possible, which allows for the maintaining of the kill zone between the two walls. It also allows for the garrison to exploit its defense in depth, retreating when there is no utility in holding out. This allows for the conservation of troop strength for longer.




The second problem with the Pelargir is the timing at Minas Tirith. Part of what makes the Southrons so important at the Battle of Minas Tirith is the sudden and unexpected arrival of Rohan's forces. There was a ten day gap between the Battle of Helm's Deep and Minas Tirith. In that time, Rohan was able to mobilize a substantial proportion of its military. That is something that seems likely to be slow. Then, this huge mounted force was able to secretly traverse a forgotten road through the mountains - which can't be quick either. But the fact that this happened meant that yet another force showed up when it wasn't expected to.


This is where the Southrons come in again. The Rohirrim were able to exploit the road and the previous destruction of Gondor's defenses to cause havoc in Mordor's forces. The Southrons were a major contributing factor in why Mordor's armies survived long enough for the Army of the Dead to be relevant. Without them, the Rohirrim would have totally defeated Mordor right then and there.


Granted, the Roman style siege craft of the Easterlings would certainly slow down the Rohirrim. But the Oilphants cause terror in horses. Which means that the Southrons have a surprising and powerful advantage over Rohan. So, anything that keeps them from arriving before Rohan would see Mordor's forces taking substantial and otherwise preventable losses. Should the Haradrim still arrive, I suspect that the Rohirrim would suffer major losses in turn. But things still would have swung more in the favor of the defenders. Like I said before, over sized elephants are not the best inside urban environments - especially when forced through small tunnels up the sides of steep mountains.


But due to the plan I came up with, they would not show up at all. They would have been wiped out with the Corsairs. Which means there would be no check against the other surprise. Granted, Rohan would not be as big of a shock. Its proximity, survival at Helm's Deep and close alliance with Gondor means Mordor should have some plan in place to deal with them. The moving up the Southrons with the Corsairs would be justified on these grounds. But Sauron can be forgiven for expecting slower arrival of their troops. He can also be forgiven for expecting Rohan to take a known path that is more conducive to cavalry armies. To be fair, he did expect this - even placing troops to defend the expected approach from Rohan's attack.


Basically, these two surprises would be highly problematic. This is where the reinforcements come in. As Aragorn, Theoden and Gandalf were all able to talk and plan before the battle started and knew it was coming, it is extremely likely that they would be able to coordinate and devise a single plan. To me, the ideal use of these reinforcements would be to have the army that arrived first delay their attack until the arrival of the second, then attacking at the same time. The Rohirrim approach from a high point at the edge of the plain surrounding Minas Tirith and have a horn loud enough to be heard all over the battlefield. Aragorn shows up in big ships that Rohan should be able to see quite clearly from their position. Thus, coordination in the battle should not be hard.


We can assume that not just the Northern Rangers have been moved into the area under Aragorn, but the men that the Southern Fiefs did not send are mobilized as well. If we remember, the fear of the Corsairs kept them from sending 90% percent of their strength to support Minas Tirith. If you are a lord who feels an imminent threat of invasion is at hand, it makes just as little sense to not mobilize your troops as it would be to send them away. So when Aragorn arrives with the Army of the Dead and destroys the corsair force, he gets more than just their ships. Those troops – estimated to be between 20 and 30 thousand already mobilized troops – could then be loaded into the ships and moved up as well. After all, eliminating the corsairs eliminated the threat that justified not deploying those troops to Minas Tirith. Now, the slaves would probably still be pressed into transporting this army as it would be a bad idea to tire the troops before such an important battle if one does not have to. But, these slaves would probably also have too poor health and arms to do actual combat. The Army of the Dead and the slaves would probably thus be treated much the same – used for the duration of the crisis then released from duty once their role is finished.


As far as the actual battleplan here, I would have a company of heavy infantry in the book situation sally forth to meet Aragorn. Then, the bulk of Aragorn’s forces would attack towards the mountain fortress, attempting to buy space and clear out any troops at the walls or already in the lower levels. Doing this would also bring up whatever supplies Aragorn was able to bring. The Rohirrim would then attack from the other side in a mounted charge. Their approach would ideally towards the rear of the Mordor army, hitting exposed flanks, supply areas and siege equipment. As soon as this attack stalls, they should then charge back towards the city at full speed. Aragorn’s forces should have secured the entrace by this point and allow access to the city. Once both groups are in, then close the gates and intergrate thse new forces into the above mentioned garrison plan. I would also use the Rohirrim as a last ditch defense. Once all but the last wall has been taken, send the remaining Rohirrim on a suicide run – essentially conducting a charge down the long road to the gate in an attempt to kill as many enemies as possible and push them back as far as possible. This means that any continuation of the battle at this point would mean things go back to standard assault and siege tactics, which again is what I will get to when I talk about Mordor’s tactics.


Now, this plan would see the enemy bounded on one side by a still secure fort, with enemy infantry attacking from one side and calvary from another racing towards their rear areas. It is entirely possible that this will result in massive losses (probably on both sides but disproportionally in Mordor’s forces) due to the surprise and encirclement. Victory is by no means certain in this plan due to the roughly 4:1 advantage Mordor has, but this same basic plan without the coordination is what led to victory in the books and movies.


A note here on Aragorn’s arrival. As this is the force that would reassert control over the port and arrives by boat, they are better positioned to bring supplies into the city. Therefore, Aragorn’s force would be stupid not to. Now in the books and movies, about a day of fighting occurs before Aragorn arrives, and he simply got his troops together and went directly to Minas Tirith. If he stopped to gather supplies, I suspect this would place the reinfocement attacks between day 3-5 of the battle. This could be decisive in some contexts.


Would this work in terms of running out the clock or outright winning? The first one is much more likely. After all, the first breach is going to be so much harder to pull off and might take several days of constant effort. I will get to that when I talk about Mordor’s tactics. Outright victory seems very unlikely given the significant balance of forces issues. The book’s 9 to one is not too bad and is in fact winnable outright. However, the movie’s 27 to one is a bit more of a challenge. The result is once the outer movie walls are breached, it is much more of an inevitable total defeat. Such tactics rely on the advantages of defense, the ability to bottleneck the enemy so they are not able to use all of their strength at once and then concentrate defensive fire on the kill zones. Add redundant layers of defense that repeats this porcess and you have a rather tough battle ahead – instead of the breach the gate and you lose type situation in the media.


Narratively, you would need to play on the fear angle. Is Frodo still out there? What is his condition? No one has seen or heard anything. Then the issues of the numbers start to sink in. Let the sense of betrayal at Gondor’s other areas not sending their full strength cause hopelessness to set in. What happened to Rohan? Did they survive Helm’s Deep and if so why are they not here to help yet? The isolation and such could be a powerful narrative thing. At the same time, the need to communicate and get supplies against this backdrop opens the door for a lot of small unit and single person heroics that Tolkien stories thrive on. Then you have the element of ambushes to get some of those heroics in. An element of classism could aid in making the leadership of Gondor even more out of touch, making Gandalf’s takeover and the return of Aragorn even more important to the story.

Outcome

Overall, I give Mordor very low odds in this new battle. Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely and extremely costly even if it were to happen. After Minas Tirith, this cost would be highly problematic for Mordor. The battles in the north all go badly. The losses in Minas Tirith – even for a victory, would leave Sauron with little in the way of reserves to handle these losses. Also, 8 other regions of Gondor would not be subdued. The loss of the central leadership would see these become independent nations with armies ranging from 500 to 5,000 men and likely their own lesser forts. Should these regions decide to force Mordor to siege them in similar battles or wage hit and run attacks like Faramir and his rangers did in the books, taking the rest of Gondor would still be a hard conquest. Rohan is still independent as well, even if significantly weakened.
What about the southern front? So, the Corsairs and Haradrim would essentially have had their military power broken in this battle. Too much of their strength was committed. But in previous conflict, devastating losses were inflicted and yet they came back. So some battle will be needed to make sure Gondor finishes the job. Yet hitting them hard would be incredibly difficult at this time due to the extreme costs of doing so, Aragorn’s weakness on the throne and the devastation Mordor left in its wake.
Also important here is the dirty tricks Mordor pulled during the siege. Literally dirty as filthy things are some of the easiest ways you can spread the flu and poison water supplies. Those tactics are really good long term actions. If you want to wait out the defenders, then they would be effective. But you need to give them time to take effect. You will not see any useful decline in enemy combat effectiveness in an assault two seconds after the first introduction of a flu vector into a city.
So those tactics would have no real value for Mordor during the battle itself. But just because an army of orcs is not outside does not mean their influence ends. Things in the city will continue to get worse. The expulsion of civilians prior to the battle would be the only thing keeping an full pandemic breaking out. The garrison would be severely weakened though. And I doubt the civilians would be allowed back in until this is contained. Combine the plague, bad water, already evacuated population and massive damage to civilian areas, I suspect that Minas Tirith would be effectively a dead zone.

Aftermath

In the books, Sauron had an estimated 70,000 troops left after Minas Tirith. That 70,000 would have to go against 28,000 total troops already trained and 280,000 additional possible conscripts. This is on top of four other areas that were unsuccessfully attacked around this same time. Then the One Ring would get destroyed at the end of the battle regardless, killing Sauron and crippling his armies. Essentially Minas Tirith would represent game over much the same way as it did in the main storyline. The main difference would be the epicness of the battle itself.
What is unclear is how a shift in resources would have affected things. Lets say for a moment that Sauron decided to concentrate his forces and wait until all troops were ready. In the books that would have seen at least another 70,000 troops sent to attack Minas Tirith – almost tripling the attack force. This means Mordor could have more easily taken the city then moved directly into conquering the rest of Gondor. Then Rohan would be the next logical choice, as this would put all human territory under his control as well as all of Mordor’s immediate surroundings. This would then allow for greater concentration on any one of the northern locations that he failed to take in part due to his dispersal of forces.
Now, lets look at what Easterlings war aims would be. This is important for us as it would help define what occupation would look like and thus what the stakes are for the people of Gondor. To do this, we need to remember the ideas of Social Darwinism and the Malthusian Trap. We know that the Easterlings will feel that it is not just their right to defeat the weaker society that is Gondor, but taking their agricultural lands would be the only way they can prevent famine in their own society. Conquest becomes a duty for leaders who are concerned about the lives of those they rule. This is basically the Nazi interpretation of lebensraum. Land must be taken and the inferior and thus defeated people should be expelled, enslaved or killed so that the allegedly superior race can live.
Thus, the War of the Ring would be seen in expand or die terms that see the war as almost a biological requirement. To a certain degree, this means that a conflict between the Easterlings and Gondor was inevitable. The attack was well timed in that they chose to attack when they had 3 other allies backing them up to maximize their odds of victory. Just as important is that victory would only delay the inevitable push towards wider conquests. Gondor would be able to support the Easterlings for a while. But for the same reasons they felt compelled to attack Gondor means that they would eventually have to push further and further until they occupy the whole of Middle Earth.
While the lebensraum idea is not inherently racist (though still ethically questionable), I suspect that the policies of the Easterlings will be. The Nazi interpretation of the concept is close enough to make me think that the Generalplan Ost of the Nazis can give us some basic ideas on how the occupation would be carried out. The idea was that the areas east of Germany were to be enslaved, expelled or killed so that the areas conquered could produce enough food to feed the ethnic Germans. This land would also be used to house Germans as a way to deal with overpopulation in the prewar German territory.
A subset of these plans was the Hunger Plan. Similar to how I see the Easterlings viewing the war, the Nazis did not see Germany as self sufficient in terms of food. In order to keep German civilian morale high and to feed the troops, food from conquered territories needed to be obtained at any price. Famine was not some accidental and natural outcome of war. It was intentionally caused and engineered specifically to kill those that the Nazis wanted dead so that those the Nazis wanted to keep alive could be fed. Saving civilians from starvation was not entertained. It was more important to sustain the war effort.
The industrialization of the Soviet Union was seen as producing a large number of urban residents that would not contribute, so their deaths would not hurt Germany. Yet their deaths would free food needed to continue the war. The result was the total destruction of perceived useless eaters. The result was to be the almost total loss of population in major Ukrainian cities. Other cities were to see less severe but still drastic reductions in rations. Even the rural farmers would see some ration cuts. By drastic cuts, I mean 420 calories a day for the Jews in the areas occupied by Army Group Center.
Between 50% to 100% of the ethnic groups conquered were to be removed in some form. Anywhere between 9.4 and 11.4 million people are estimated to have died as a result. This was explicit – the planners knew that their plans would cause between 20-30 million if fully implemented. They wanted and counted on that. Between 8-10 million German colonists were to be moved in and rule over the remaining 14 million native residents – retained as slaves.
A few different policies were envisioned to cause the extermination of the targeted people. First, the conquests themselves were brutal affairs that would kill many – war crimes were carried out as a result. Then there was the concentration camps. These were rarely death camps in their own right. Most were overly brutal labor camps aimed at working prisoners to death. Thus, the killings occurred through a combination of massacres, gas chambers and overwork. The last major policy was denying food to those the Nazis wanted to kill.
Niewyk, Donald L.; Nicosia, Francis R. (2012-07-24). The Columbia Guide to the Holocaust. Columbia University Press. ISBN 9780231528788.
Nbg. Doc. 2718–PS, "Aktennotiz über Ergebnis der heutigen Besprechung mit den Staatssekretären über Barbarossa," May 2, 1941, printed in International Military Tribunal, ed., Der Prozess gegen die Hauptkriegsverbrecher vor dem Internationalen Militärgerichtshof, Nürnberg, 14. November 1945–1. Oktober 1946, vol. 31. Sekretariat des Gerichtshofs, Nuremberg 1948, p. 84.
Now, resistance tends to complicate the economic plans of occupying forces. When invading Poland, the Nazis expected this and had a 61,000 person list of people to kill right from the beginning. These were all people who actively resisted or who the Nazis felt could due to their social status. The result was mass executions targeting the political, cultural and intellectual elites of Poland.
Piotr Eberhardt, http://rcin.org.pl/Content/15652/WA51_13607_r2011-nr12_Monografie.pdf Political Migrations on Polish Territories (1939–1950), Polish Academy of Sciences Stanisław Leszczycki Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Monographies, 12. Page 46
Like the Nazis, I think the Easterlings would try to sustain their occupation through living off the land. Like the Nazis, I suspect they will know and desire significant loss of life as a result. Feeding their own people will justify their war crimes. After all, defeat means weakness. Thus Gondorians would have earned the rank contempt for life and disregard for their suffering. At least in the minds of the Easterling Spartiate class that sets policy.
The confiscation of food would be the obvious tactic borrowed. Everyone would be forced to give up any and all food needed by the Easterlings. Then, only those residents the Easterlings found useful (aka good future slaves) would get any extra food. First, cities are made of people who consume food but do not produce it. This means that the famines would hit there first and worst. In fact I would not be surprised if extra workers were needed in the rural areas needed for farm work, the Easterlings would use forced population transfers to take people from the cities to the farmland. This would mean massive loss of population in the urban areas and horrific death tolls.
Well, why would there be a shortage of workers in the rural areas? After all, the people there were already 90% farmers. Well, the rest of Gondor would face massacres meant to kill off those who could not work for or accept Easterling rule. All political enemies, resisters and those perceived as useless eaters would die. This would mean the weak, sick, elderly, disabled, "criminal" and mentally ill. This group might also include the able bodied adults that are homeless or unemployed. This latter group can be made to work, so murder is less commonly used against them by regimes like the Nazis. Now, I doubt that the labor camps would be the model of labor and executions. Instead, traditional slavery would be used. Then, on top of these massacres and the attrition of slavery, there would be more killings meant to make room for the Easterlings themselves to settle and run the region.
These tactics were not unique to the Nazis. The Soviet Union also intentionally engineered a famine in Ukraine. It needed more food to feed its urban workers, who Stalin felt were key to building Socialism. Then, the peasants were seen as inherently reactionary and naturally resisting the push to Socialism. Plus, the Ukrainians were developing an ethnic identity separate from Russians and wanted independence. An estimated 3 to 3.5 million people died of starvation to feed Russian workers and to retain political control. The poor economic policies of collectivization did not help (at all) but the famine would have happened anyway.
Applebaum, Anne. Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine (2017
Timothy Snyder: Bloodlands: Europe between Hitler and Stalin. Basic Books, New York 2010, p. 411.