The Conflict
Prelude
Before the War of the Ring, some help can be provided by Mordor to overcome the logistical issues faced by the Easterlings. Nurn can produce enough food to feed the army for the duration of the expected campaign. The Plateau of Gorgoroth would be able to provide enough depot and barracks space. So, as troops move into position, they would be that much closer to Minas Tirith and the 15 day rations would get them further. But it took ten days for the Gondorian forces attacking the Black Gate to cover the distance between the Black Gate and Minas Tirith. This help by Mordor would be a major help. But this still leaves only 5 days of supplies available for when they get to Minas Tirith. That is not long enough to wait out a city.
This means that Cair Andros would become a major problem for the Easterling advance on Minas Tirith. It is located in the middle of a river needed for this approach. If it is not taken, then the river cannot be used to move men and food to Minas Tirith. If it is bypassed, then oxen have to be used. This would significantly slow them down. This time, it is not just the increase in supplies causing problems. We get into time issues as well. Remember – it is not long after Minas Tirith that the Ring reaches Mount Doom. If they have any hope of winning, they need to reach Minas Tirith fast. Failure means total defeat.
Bypassing Cair Andros also exposes this now much slower army to attack. The Rangers would obviously become a problem for supply lines, as would the Northmen militias. The Northmen would have powerful motives to counter it at every turn after the brutality of the Easterling attacks. They would probably move south and work with the Gondorian Rangers after the Easterlings are defeated.
But so would the garrison at Cair Andros. Remember, the heavy cavalry of Gondor is its main strength. It would be entirely possible to see the raiding of medieval knights to be replicated. The Gondorian cavalry could sally forth, strike at baggage trains and then use the same speed to retreat to safety. It was a well recognized fact during World War One that an army could not sustain operations further than 72 miles from its rail lines. This is at a time when trucks were a much bigger part of the distribution of supplies and rudimentary air drops were used for for the first time. So the Easterlings would be more constrained rather than less constrained - so the 72 mile number is much more of a problem.
These similar constraints applied to the German Army in the Schleiffen plan. It recognized that without a swift defeat of France, Germany would face a two front war with France and Russia that it would lose. By fast, they meant 40 days. Implementing this plan meant some units marched up to 40 miles a day. Railroads were critical to the logistics of this plan, which in turn requires Liege – a major railroad hub at the time. Without taking Liege, they could not move enough men and supplies to maintain the speed of the rest of the Army. Every day that they failed risked the entire German war plans. The lost time due to the Battle of Liege was between 4 and 10 days. In a plan that called for the total defeat of France in 40, this was probably a major factor in the plan failing. Similar to the other issues, bypassing it meant that the troops protecting Liege could also threaten supply and communications of the German Army.
You might think that this would not be an issue. After all, the march from Minas Tirith to the Black Gate took 10 days and the Legions carried 15 days of food on them during marches. This is where they were starting from in the books and movies. The problem is that only leaves us with 5 days worth of extra supplies. That is not a long time in terms of sieges. That might be enough to establish a supply line, but it does not solve the issue. It means that the main army could theoretically bypass Cair Andros, so long as two conditions are met. The first is some of the troops are left behind to take it as the rest moves on. The other is ships filled with supplies would have to be ready to move the second the path is cleared. This means that for Gondor, simply having Cair Andros last 15 days could result in major supply issues for the Easterlings. If it holds out for a month, it could force the Easterlings to surrender around Minas Tirith out of their own food shortages if some alternative is not found.
With rivers offering vastly superior transportation and the River Anduin running through Osgiliath, Cair Andros really does block a critical supply route for the Easterlings. It is 40 miles north of Osgiliath and Osgiliath itself appears closer to 25 miles from Minas Tirith. Which means that the Anduin would function similar to a World War One rail line with its strategic implications. In the books, only 6,000 orcs and men were sent to attack here. That seems entirely too few. Especially when this attack came at the same time the forces from Minas Morgul set out for Minas Tirith. This means there would be more of a time constraint, as the forces needing supplies from the Anduin would already be in place before the lines became open.
As stated in my discussion of the island itself, I suspect that the garrison itself would be 200. But an additional 800 would be in the surrounding area. Meaning 400 heavy infantry, 300 archers, 200 lancers and 100 pike men. These would probably be alerted to the approaching enemy due to their role. The position of Cair Andros means that the headquarters of the northern border walls would be on the Island itself. As the Easterlings approach, reports would filter back from the walls. The troops would logically retreat back too - only offering enough resistance to cover their own retreats.
At first, I think the entire Easterling force attacking Gondor would be involved in the battles around Cair Andros. But when the siege sets in, I think that most would be diverted down to Minas Tirith. This means a solid 8 legions and 11 at first. Two legions and 3 Auxilia brigades would be left to conduct the siege.
Basically there are two main issues we have to take into account here. First is the geography. To the north are the marshes that prevent the attacking armies from approaching this way. Well, they technically could. But that would send them an incredibly long way around. Nor could they be reasonably expected to prevent reinforcements and supplies from approaching this way. The field works I think the Easterlings would try to construct here thus cannot be totally effective.
The second is the river itself. We have discussed before that there are effectively no safe options for a huge army to use between Cair Andros and Osgiliath. They can build bridges and use boats, but this takes time. Failure to eliminate this position would expose these to attacks from that could prove problematic - also exploiting the river. So it is not like Cair Andros is essential exactly. The Easterlings can get around it. It is just a bit more difficult to either take or justify not taking.
It is possible for them to march down the Eastern side of the river to Osgiliath and cross there. Mordor's forces would probably have taken the area by the time the Easterlings can get down there. Those troops that bypass Cair Andros would probably take this rout. But this grants Gondor a huge amount of space to operate and the garrison is intact. This garrison would continue to block Easterling supply lines or it would have the freedom to travel the western side down to Minas Tirith.
So, when the battle starts, I would expect to see the main Easterling force march out of Mordor through the Black Gate. Then, they would make their way to Cair Andros. Their goal would be to defeat the local Gondorian garrison and use the island to begin transporting their supplies (possibly troops too). From there, they would seek to link up with the main army of Mordor's orcs marching towards Osgiliath.
It seems highly unlikely that they would be able to sneak up on the garrison. More likely, they would begin by attempting a direct assault on the eastern side - against a garrison both prepared for and aware of the threat. This would likely be a costly failure. But they could not risk the lost time, so their attack would come regardless of the odds. Possibly by chasing down the men who have yet to make it inside the fortifications. There have been cases of attackers ambushing a castle garrison while they were out taking a bath in the local lake. They then followed the fleeing defenders so closely the attackers were able to get seize the gate as it opened to let the defenders get back inside. Such attacks were rare, but it does demonstrate that this tactic by the Easterlings is plausible enough to try.
Once this failure becomes clear, the Easterlings would probably continue to "fix" the garrison. Essentially, the goal is to keep the garrison focused on that section as much as possible so they do not have the ability to respond elsewhere. As this happens, the field works would be set up and the Easterlings would settle in for a siege. Other contingents would begin setting up pontoon bridges and forcing a crossing to the south. Once that is done, the encirclement would be complete.
Meanwhile, the Easterlings would be facing a problem. Mordor needs their troops to continue their march down to conduct the attack on Mians Tirith. But now, they are bogged down in a siege. So some of the troops would be sent down to help in the attack. But they can't afford to send all. Especially now that the elves are there. So some would stay to continue to attack Cair Andros, while the rest would be forced to march on.
Before that, supplies would be constantly carried in and civilians would be sent out. But once the attempts to cross the river are spotted, it would produce a bit of a panic. After all, they were supposed to be secure from the western side. Any river defense craft would be deployed to attempt to disrupt the crossings. Knowing that this would probably not work forever, the commander would likely begin to prepare for a full siege footing.
But those river boats are not likely to be all that effective. They more likely than not would be totally driven off without doing too much damage. Well, at least not enough to stop the crossings from happening. But we have to remember that the garrison has a a full Tagma that would have been called into the garrison. This means a solid 1,000 soldiers when just the 200 strong Banda would be needed to defend the island itself. Including I might add, about 330 Cataphracts.
There are few times it seems an army is more vulnerable to a mounted charge than when they are struggling to secure a bridgehead on the contested side of a river. If ever there was a chance to do massive damage to the attacking Easterlings, now would be that moment. But this would be one of those classic moments where knowing when to attack would be essential. The more troops the enemy is able to get across, the more the odds tilt against the cataphracts. But at the same time, the charge would do more damage if successful. So ideally it would hit just before the Easterlings are able to solidify their bridgeheads, which then allows for the bridges to be knocked out.
I suspect this would continue to happen until something happens to break the stalemate. The combination of the attacks by both land and river would make things difficult for the Easterlings. Probably enough so that serious delays would have been forced. But weight of numbers will eventually take a toll and mistakes by the garrison would prove fatal for them. Granted, there is nothing to stop the Easterlings from making stupid choices. But it seems unlikely that these would be bad enough to affect the general course of the battle. After all they are professional soldiers with superior numbers. Basically, things have to go perfectly for Gondor, which means in this case defeat is inevitable. The crossings will still happen, just with more cost in lives and time than expected.
But the time would be critical, not just for the supply issues mentioned comprising the Easterling attacks on Minas Tirith. The question becomes what to do with the extra garrison troops. The commander will know that once the encirclement is complete, it is unlikely that sufficient food will get in. Shortening the front one has to defend allows a smaller force to be equally effective in combat. In sieges, fewer troops defending actually helps, as it reduces food requirements and thus makes starvation less of a threat. So the second that it appears the encirclement looks imminent, the commander would likely launch one last sally with the troops outside the main banda garrison. Their orders would be to do as much damage as possible before the battle turns against them. Then they would be to conduct a fighting retreat to either Osgiliath or Minas Tirith.
This can be accomplished too by a catastrophic defeat in open battle. Should through better generals, good timing and surprise, it might be possible to cut off Gondor's soldiers. Unable to reach Cair Andros, they will likely suffer massive losses before being forced to flee in the opposite direction. The result is the same for Cair Andros, just with two important differences. First, there is the high morale cost that such a defeat would have, making it harder to hold Cair Andros. Then, there is the issue of fewer and shakier troops making it back to Minas Tirith. Which could then cause similar issues when they tell what happened.
For this reason, I feel the narrative would be better served by this option. It would make the numbers at Minas Tirith more lopsided. The sense of impending doom would be stronger. Then, the impact of Gandalf's ring to stabilize the situation would be much more useful. It would also help fuel Denethor's decline into suicidal despair.
The garrison would then pull back to the island and prepare to hold out for as long as possible in a siege. The commander would probably put a call out for aid. This is where the elves would make themselves felt. Elven aid would be smuggled in through the marshes. The lembas bread would go a long way into making sure that the garrison does not starve. It also does not take much to feed a person - so the whole garrison could be fed with amounts small enough it can be easily transported through the marsh. The same boats and elves would also allow for much more successful raiding against the supplies and crossings of the Easterlings.
Then there is the eagles. They would make life so much easier. Seeing the threat that the Easterling attack poses, especially after the fighting at Dul Guldor, they would respond in force. This means the virtually assured destruction of siege equipment, the bridges and the supplies waiting to move down river. So the issues here become much worse for the Easterlings.
At this point, I see the battle settling into a bit of a routine. Easterlings would assault by day each and every day. Gondorian troops would sally forth to attempt a break out by night. The elves would attack the river crossings and supplies they can reach. This would go on until a decisive moment.
This is where the time element comes in. Isengard's ill fated invasions of its neighbors would have forced the mobilization of Rohan, Moria, Lothlorien, Mirkwood, the Ents and the Eagles. Then there was the Dol Guldur force that could not be ignored by this coalition. Which means that they would likely already be united into a single coalition, mobilized in the area and at war with Mordor's coalition. They would then move to defeat the Easterlings attacking Cair Andros on their way to reinforcing Minas Tirith.
The big problem here would be the river itself. The Easterlings would need to split their forces into two groups in order to enforce the siege. The problem with that is the entire relief force can now concentrate against only part of the Easterlings. The attempt to cross the river by the other portion would lead to a massacre at this point. This would be a classic case of defeat in detail.
Once the western bank is cleared of enemies, the Free People would turn to the eastern. They have the eagles and ents to provide cover for the soldiers crossing. Which means any troop concentrations large enough to be effective in blocking the crossing would be easy prey. I think the Easterlings would know the game is up. and retreat. The goal would probably meet up with the remnants of their supply columns and escort them down to Osgiliath.
The main impacts here would be the constraining of options for Mordor. Essentially, there would be no hope for them waiting out Minas Tirith long enough for starvation to be a legitimate tactic. The only option becomes direct assault. The Easterling supply issues would mean that after day 5, their food would become increasingly scarce. Their overland routes technically could have provided some relief, just not good enough. But whether it could or not is a bit moot. The reinforcements from the Free People would be able to cover both sides of the river through eagle based air power. So the Easterlings would have gone from having to rely on Plan B to having no backup at all.
Plus, these troops reinforcing Minas Tirith would be pretty powerful. If Mordor is to have any hope of breaking Gondor, it has to happen before the arrival of these reinforcements.
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