Now the next major point I want to address here is the larger strategic questions that arise out of a Gondor victory at Minas Tirith. After all, the War of the Ring would not end if all that happened is Mordor lost. Lets assume that the One Ring does get destroyed. But I don’t think that would matter too much, as Mordor’s greatest field commander and most of its armies were destroyed in the battle without the loss of the Ring. Either way, the forces of Mordor would be scattered, demoralized and on the defensive.
This is going to take me into uncharted territory here. Before, I have had Tolkien’s original story to work with as a basic guide. At this point, the changes are going to have added up to the degree that is not possible any more. So, I need to do a little discussion of the sort of stories and tropes that seem to fit with the story going forward.
The Conflict
Prelude
An important element of Mordor’s coalition here is its conflicting interests. The Corsairs are interested in their own plunder and slaves. The Haradrim wanted and were promised lands in the Southern Fiefs to feed their own population. This means that the rest of the coalition would have an interest in maximizing their own claims to Gondor’s territory. Then, these same policies produced massive resistance from the occupied territories in real life – we would expect Gondorian civilians to pick up where the military left off. Gondor would become a free for all between the conquered and the former alliance members.
We have to recognize that Sauron's goal of hegemony would now be threatened. Easterlings would now control territory Mordor would need to move troops through Gondor. More fundamentally, one does not gain hegemony through policies that turn others into rival superpowers. Easterling conquests would most certainly make the Easterlings the main power in all of Middle Earth. We need to remember the numbers here – I estimate that Mordor’s army has between 140,200 and 260,300 orcs is can call on. Remember – 214,400 is the estimated number of just the Spartiate class of the Easterlings. Even if they do not have auxilia to call on, the Easterlings still have parity in numbers. Add in their skill in combat and the Easterlings would have an advantage in open battle. Due to the Cult of the Offensive, I think such an open battle would be much more likely despite Mordor’s defensive benefits.
This is where the natural war like nature of the Easterlings would come into play again. Remember, the only reason they are loyal to Mordor is because they view Sauron as a god. This shows the real nature of power – if people do not want to listen, you have no power. You might be strong and have a lot of military assets, but no real political power. His international position comes from Sauron's power of persuasion and the obedience of allies. Should this be broken, he loses a huge amount of his power.
I suspect the alliance would break down at the latest after the Battle of Minas Tirith, regardless of the outcome. Victory will produce the dynamics described above. Defeat will break the alliance due to a loss of confidence in Sauron's leadership – as is historically the case when massive defeats occur. Plus, a militaristic culture like the Easterlings would desire redemption for the loss of glory and vengeance for their defeat. Not to say they would not continue to fight Gondor, but their loyalty to Mordor will be broken. War with Mordor will follow should Gondor be held at bay. The problem then would be a long running war that would probably destroy Easterling military power through attrition if nothing else.
The biggest impact though requires us to examine demographics for a second. We know that Easterling society is a society with a highly entrenched class and ethnic hierarchy. This is enforced by the liberal use of excessive force by the Spartiate class. Which monopolizes political power and wealth in its hands. Quite significant is the fact they also make up roughly half of the army. The half with significantly better training and leadership, plus the best equipment.
These Spartiates would be the members of the legions. Basically, there is no way they would not all be deployed in the invasion. This would be a major chance for glory for those who participate and would be seen as a holy crusade on behalf of Sauron. Then, this is an invasion not a deployment to handle an uprising. Which means that the Auxilia formations manning the border forts would all the defensive power they would expect to need. After all, the main groups that they would expect to defend against would be the same groups that the legions would be seeking to knock out through offensive actions.
Which poses a major problem for Easterling society. Literally the entire upper class would have been wiped out in these defeats. The best and most loyal troops in Easterling society and their most educated members and political elites all gone in one blow. This is on top of the huge demographic blow that so many deaths in such a short time would cause.
Then there is the fact that the middle classes of the perioeci would have taken significant losses too. Due to the auxilia being held back in the border forts their losses would not be near as bad. Plus, the auxilia would not be the same percentage of the overall membership of this class. But they would still be the only group left with any military power, education and remote claim to authority. The problem is that the claims would be tenuous at best and the mobilized forces would be scattered in the border forts away from core areas.
Lastly, there would be the Helots. This class is essentially just slaves who literally have war declared on them every year as an excuse to massacre them at the slightest infraction. They would also be the class the Blue Wizards would be organizing for a slave revolt. Keep in mind that under normal conditions, this would be difficult at best. Most planners would recognize this would be a hindrance at best to the Easterlings. The plan would be to coordinate this uprising at the best possible time so that the disruption and distraction would be maximized. Actual regime change would be seen as too much to expect.
But what happens when the elites are almost wiped out almost to a man? When a much reduced and scattered collection of second tier troops are all that remain to stop this uprising? Well, all the sudden this uprising effectively has nothing in its way. The landed estates would probably all be burned or seized. This would solidify the impacts of the military defeats on the elites. Probably urban riots would break out too. The Auxilia forces would attempt to impose order in the areas around their forts. They would also probably be interested in continuing the war, as they are soldiers in an honor based militaristic society.
Hence the strategic brilliance of sending the Blue Wizards to infiltrate the Easterling society. The worst case possibility is an unsuccessful slave revolt. Such a revolt would complicate Easterling logistics and demand some troops be held back for security purposes. The army would be delayed and/or reduced in numbers in this case. Gondor would benefit from this. Should it succeed, one can expect the Easterlings be knocked out of the war entirely and be eliminated as a great power. This would probably be the best case scenario.
Also possible, given the in universe rumors, is the Blue Wizards replace Sauron as the main deity. This would mean the shift from the Easterlings to the side of the Free People. Well, at least until Sauron is defeated. It seems unlikely that they would remain friendly though. The preexisting militarism and hostility to Gondor would combine with the slow intoxicating nature of power to lead the Blue Wizards to go the way of Saruman. They would probably use the glory of defeating Mordor to rally the Easterlings to their cause. Then they would set their sights on the rest of Middle Earth.
You might think that this scenario would prove unlikely. After all, the Easterlings worshiped Melkor before Sauron and switched deities only after Melkor fell. The total switch to a new religion is too slow to be completed in the time frame we have to work with. But we have to remember three things. First, the defeats in the War of the Ring would cause some questioning of the credibility of Sauron as a deity. Then, the lower one is in the social hierarchy, the less one has an incentive to preserve it. Most importantly, Sauron dies with the destruction of the One Ring. Which means the deity in question is removed from the equation. All of this paves the way for a replacement.
The Helots however, would have more grievances against the Spartiates than Gondor and little reason to remain loyal. They suffer horribly and gain nothing from the status quo. The war would be nothing but a burden for them. It would be easy to paint the War of the Ring as an opening for a successful revolt. The Blue Wizards are much more likely to make a common cause between the Helots and Gondor. They would likely organize/lead underground organizations to plan and carry out the revolt, then start it when such a revolt would be most destabilizing. The Blue Wizards could also network with other outside powers to secure material aid. The Dwarves and Elves would have a history of such actions, so they would probably step up. Dwarven adventurers would also probably step in as mercenaries.
This to me sounds like the set up for a modified Russian Revolution/ Civil War. The army of a major superpower was broken by a string of military defeats. The traditional officer class was wiped out by battlefield deaths which led to their replacement by the lower classes. This meant not only people traditionally less experienced in army leadership but also less literate. Those traditional elites that survived (such as those safe at the general staff headquarters) were discredited by the defeats and the worsening conditions at home. Similar to how the Bolsheviks exploited World War One and lower class grievances. They then used this to turn an international war into a civil war that solidified their power
The middle classes and the Duma attempted to impose a new regime in the February Revolution. But their desire to continue the war that the lower classes were sick of with a rapidly deteriorating army could not work. So a much more organized working class based revolutionary group with outside backing was able to capture control of the geographic and economic heartland. The Bolshevik Party effectively was able to use this to impose their will on the periphery as a result. Well, to a degree. Some areas were able to successfully break away.
There are some important differences though. I don't want this to sound like it is a direct one to one comparison. For example, I don't see a Rasputin like character undermining the regime via scandal. Nor do I see open rebellion from the Auxilia beforehand. In the buildup to the February Revolution, you had the murder of Rasputin and plans by groups affiliated with the Duma actually planning coups. The officers of the Tsarist military actually told Nicholas II to his face that he needed to resign if Russia was to win the war. None of these factors I see occurring in Rhun. Lastly, World War One lasted much longer than the Russian government was able to fight. A war like the War of the Ring would not provoke the same level of economic hardships on the rest of society.
So, we have the Blue Wizards filling in for the outside assistance and top leadership of the Bolsheviks. Who also had an unexpected golden opportunity. The army they faced was essentially broken and the traditional elites thoroughly discredited. The forces left to stop them from taking control would be the much reduced auxilia forces stationed on the fringes. They would also be trying to impose order and a new government favorable to them. They, like the Russian elites in 1917, would feel disillusioned with the old regime enough to seek change but previously would be restrained out of fear of working class power. But circumstances would force their hand.
But the Blue Wizard would suffer from his own problems. Basically, he would suffer from serious lack of numbers, experience, training and resources. Many of the local uprisings would be spontaneous and responding to local concerns and grievances. There might not be any concern for or interest in wider policy. Finances would be difficult at best due to there being no mechanism in place for getting tax revenue or military supplies. Typically, this means glorified thefts that alienate the population. The helots used as the foundation of the Blue Wizard's uprising would be based on those who have no experience in fighting or leading. Those that did were killed. Others would have all operated underground. That is a structure that hampers the development of numbers needed to wage total war or run a competent government.
Effectively this would see the Easterling society descend into civil war. With the massive defeats in the north and the civil war developing, it seems the Easterlings would not be a major military power for a long time. Which then allows the Free People to turn their attention to the south. Which means Gondor would probably be getting significantly more aid now. But the battle would already be waging. So to a certain degree, the attempt to bog down the forces in the north would have paid off. We will see if it enough for Mordor to exploit.
So, one thing that would likely become a huge issue is refugees. If we follow the Russian Civil War model, then this Easterling Civil War would be horrific. The Russian Civil War was triggered by the First World War - which killed about 1.15 million Russians. The Civil War killed between 5 and 7 million. Such fighting would lead to an understandable desire to get out of the area just to stay alive. This then would produce a backlash against the refugees. Think what happened in Europe in the wake of the Syrian Civil War for example.
Now, as hinted at before, I don't think that Rhun would be home to a united superpower after this. The Russian Civil War did lead to the rise of the Soviet Union, true. But if one looks at the conditions the Bolsheviks had to overcome, nothing about their victory was easy or inevitable. Nor were they entirely successful. Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland all gained independence despite Soviet attempts to reimpose control. And it is not like there wouldn't be local ethnic tensions that could lead to similar demands for independence. Such tensions were baked into the Easterling System. Loss of central control would likely lead to purely underground movements launching open uprisings.
Then there is the time factor. Russia waged its civil war for longer than it participated in World War One. The combined fighting saw huge loss of life and economic decline. So the simple ending of hunger would be a significant burden on whatever new administration took over. The difficulties in doing this led to instability causing problems for the new regime. White forces too struggled to overcome these challenges. So fighting for control and the recovery time would keep any new central government inwardly focused and weak for a decent period of time.
All this leaves the Blue Wizard regime in the core. They would probably be able to solidify control over their territory. But it would be shaky for awhile. The defeats at the fringes would demonstrate that they are not all powerful. These would also have resources and people that could be useful in rebuilding the core regions. Which means slower recovery and all the rebellion breeding hardships that entails.
But the Dwarves would smell an opportunity. They would exploit the opening to invest in the new government. The old regime was hostile and not interested in growth. But the new one is weak and in need of money. Failure to get this could see overthrow of the Blue Wizard government. The Soviet government did get German loans and economic investment to help rebuild. So this is not much of a stretch.
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