Assault on the Lonely Mountain
The northern campaign poses a bit of a strategic problem for Mordor's coalition. On one hand, the main objective would still be to defeat Gondor. So most effort would be sent there. But major secondary objectives could be reached. Such as the Iron Hills, the Lonely Mountain and Dale.
The Conflict
Prelude
Due to the issues described in the sections on the Iron Hills and the Lonely Mountain, serious changes appear to be in order for how Mordor's attack in the northern reaches. First, the Iron Hills would likely be the first target of the Easterlings - not Dale. Obviously, the iron is a major factor there. Gold is cool and all, but kinda hard to make a sword with it. Iron on the other hand, is much more useful for war. Once they begin marching, the deterrence value of the Lonely Mountain would fail to stop Mirkwood. They would send their forces to secure the Iron Hills. Ideally, this would be through providing reinforcements like how the elves reinforced Helm's Deep. But cultural mistrust and the sense of crisis would lead it turning into a battle or major standoff. This would provoke the Lonely Mountain into sending troops to reinforce the Iron Hills. But like the Battle of Five Armies, the arrival of the Easterlings would serve as a unifying factor.
Deployment
Now, I think that this campaign would have 6 legions and 8 auxilia brigades dedicated to it. This is primarily because the army group was at most 6 legions. This army group would be the largest unit of command available for the Easterling Army. So this would be an impressive force in its own right. Then, in my breakdowns, it appears that the Easterlings would sent 1.3 brigades per legion. Which comes out to 8 for this invasion. The forces from Lake-town would be 3 legions and 2 auxilia brigades but all under regulation strength due to losses.
Starting with Dale, lets see what the Free People would muster. Dale was able to muster 50,000. That seems like a massive force for a mere city state located in a mostly peaceful region under the protection of a major ally. It is far more likely that this would be the total inhabitants of the city at the time of the battle. The numbers of Lake-town militia used in the movie version of the Battle of Five Armies seems far more likely. These were 3,000 (including 2,000 civilians. Which for our purposes I'll use to say 1,000 full time civil defense forces normally operating towers and gatehouses, collecting taxes and so forth - essentially a cross between police and military defense of the walls. The other 2,000 would be called to arms in emergencies. Like now.
The dwarves would probably have a pretty decent sized force. Now, I think hard numbers for the Lonely Mountain here would be pretty difficult to get. But lets take the canon numbers of 100,000 as a solid minimum. On one hand, the area was not wiped out by Smaug, meaning there would likely be more than what would be in the books. But some would have left for Moria and towards the Grey Mountains.
The Iron Hills obviously would have some troops part of the coalition. But how many? I have literally no information that allows me to figure out a baseline to work with. But I do know that the Lonely Mountain is the main kingdom in the area. Both it and Moria would be much more prosperous and thus draw residents to them. I would imagine that this and the lower wealth of the Iron Hills would mean a much smaller army. So for our purposes here I am going to say 10,000. This is plausible for me as they sent 7,500 soldiers in the movies and 500 in the book version of the Battle of 5 Armies.
Moria would send some troops. But they would be both split and engaged in other battles on the way. So they would be a sort of mid range force. My guess is about 50,000. The rest would be battle losses or sent to help Rohan. Due to the battles with the rest of the Easterling forces, they would probably not show up until the siege of the Lonely Mountain has already started. But their victories here eliminates the vast majority of these other Easterling armies as a threat. So their activities would be of a lot of value even prior to their arrival at the Lonely Mountain.
Now. Mirkwood. This force would be small at first. The main fighting, like for Moria, would start around Dol Guldor. But the importance of the Iron Hills would demand some response. In the Battle of 5 Armies, they sent 1,000 in the books and 10,000 for the movies. So a single 2,400 regiment would seem entirely plausible for me. Once the fighting in the south wraps up the full force would move to the Lonely Mountain. The full army would be mobilized by this point and unite with those from Dol Guldor. When you factor in losses and those already at the Lonely Mountain, I suspect the reinforcements to probably be around 6,000.
This means that there would be 28,800 legionaries and 30,720 Auxlia. Somewhere between 4,800 and 9,600 legionaries and 3,840 to 5,760 would show up as reinforcements. The Free People would start off with 1,000 Dale soldiers and 2,000 militia, 100,000 dwarves from the Lonely Mountain, 10,000 from the Iron Hills and 1,000 from Mirkwood. Then 6,000 Mirkwood Elves and 50,000 Dwarves from Moria would be their reinforcements.
The Engagement
The failure to properly coordinate in advance plus the fact the Iron Hills seem harder to defend, they would be defeated here. This would cause a fighting retreat as the survivors attempt to make it to the Lonely Mountain. At this point, they would retreat inside and wait for the Easterlings to exhaust themselves.
So once the battles reach the lonely Mountain, we would have roughly 6 legions and 8 auxilia brigades chasing the roughly 1,000 Mirkwood elves and the dwarf soldiers from the Iron Hills - that I'll estimate at 7,500 after losses. The reserve militia will be mustered to escort the Dale civilians into the Lonely Mountain and aid in their defense. I suspect the 1,000 main troops would remain at the city in a rear guard action. But this would probably result in them getting cut off. The elves and militia at the Lonely Mountain would probably take up positions on the spurs flanking the approach to the entrance of the Lonely Mountain. Effectively this would create an effective kill zone similar to the book version of the Battle of Five Armies.
The result is that the Easterlings would then have two separate but clearly related sieges they need to work through - Dale and the Lonely Mountain itself. Once Dale falls, it would be much easier to get supplies up to the rest of the legions. But the two are so close that it is not essential. It would be easy to move the supplies off the ships just before the city. So this isn't the bottleneck that I think Cair Andros would be later.
At least one legion would set up its camp in front of the entrance to the Lonely Mountain and begin construction of their double set of palisades meant to enforce the blockade. But this would only be between the spurs flanking the entrance. First off, this is where the main threat would be coming from if the defense attempts to sally. Then, this would be much easier to man, as shorter lines allows for the same defensive power with less men. More importantly, they would not know about the secret back entrance. So they would see no need to cover any more than the area between the two spurs.
While this is taking place, the same sort of operation would be targeting Dale. One legion would set up shop on the far side of the river. Probably two Auxilia brigades would cover the two flanks. The entire rest of the army would probably set up shop on the land side of Dale in preparation for the assault. Once the construction is done to isolate the town, they would begin.
But here is the fun part. The forces moving up from Lake-town would probably be arriving about now. Which means they can be used to assault Dale. The patrols normally sent out to monitor the area for enemy activity would notice their approach probably before they get close enough to be seen from the city. This would not be unreasonable for a force expecting their arrival. The plan would change a bit at this point.
The forces placed on the land side of Dale would make their normal assault. This would naturally be aiming to take the city. But just as important is the need to force the militia to focus on defending against this seemingly main assault. Then, the use of the ships would allow the Lake-town remnants to speed into place and land on the area protected by the river. The weaker defenses and the defenders sending their forces elsewhere would make this much easier. The city would fall.
Then, this entire force of Easterlings would move into place outside the mountain. Then things will start to get a little brutal. The forces that came up from Lake-town would represent the remnants of the force that suffered probably one of the worst Easterling defeats in their history. Plus, the attackers would have a new found group of prisoners. The result? Human sacrifices. The prisoners from Dale and the commanders from the defeated legions would probably be slaughtered in full view of the defenders. The Auxilia come from the lower classes, so the Roman decimation punishment would be used - one man out of every unit would be selected for execution. The sentence would be carried out by the remaining men in the unit. Also probably in a way that conforms to Easterling sacrifice ritual demands and in full view of the defenders. The corpses would probably be eaten and skulls arrainged in the front of the Easterling Lines to further the impact.
This would mess with the minds of pretty much anyone that saw it. Though only those who saw it would be shocked. So the soldiers already in the Lonely Mountain. This does nothing for the 6,000 Mirkwood Elves and 50,000 Dwarves from Moria that would be showing up right about now. They would not have the benefit of a fleet to get up the river as fast. So they would be close behind, but not so close as to be classified as a hot pursuit. This would mean the sacking of Dale and the sacrifices to finish just in time to see the arrival of the Lonely Mountain's aid.
I suspect that the battle would be rather brutal at this point. The Easterling resolve would be quite high. As is the quality of their defensive position. But on the other hand, they are surrounded. Three sides have well fortified positions. Just the troops from Moria equal the total force originally devoted to taking the Lonely Mountain. So the numbers clearly favor the Free People.
I think that the Easterlings would probably send at least two legions to assault the main gate of the Lonely Mountain. They would probably have at least two Auxlia brigades backing them up. Then, two legions and two brigades of Auxilia would be sent to clear the spurs on either side. After this is done, they would be able to aid in the main assault or help with the reargard defensive actions. The last two Auxilia brigades would probably man the defensive walls with the remnants of the Lake-town force in reserve.
The idea here is that they will be attacked on all sides, so breaking out somewhere would be needed. The two side spurs have much fewer men, so there is an advantage to be gained by attacking each in force. The Lonely Mountain's main gate is the strategic objective, so taking it would have huge benefits too. Should they get in, it would be a simple matter of continuing the assault. The Easterlings could begin retreating all their forces from the other fronts into the gate. This would allow them to gain a vastly better defensive position while also throwing more men towards their main objective.
But this is highly unlikely. The dwarves are masters of defense and defense in medieval war already has massive advantages. Then factor in that the garrison inside has more men than the entire enemy force outside. So it appears there is little to no hope of the Easterlings getting in. They would lose more and more troops as they try and fail in desperate attempts to get in.
Not like the forces of the Free People would be having an easy time either. The field works the Easterlings would have set up would make it surprisingly difficult for the dwarven phalanxes from getting in. This too would be a long drawn out fight. But the dwarves would bring up their tried and true siege equipment. A relatively short time later (for sieges), an array of catapults, ladders and ramps would be set up and in action. Towers probably would not be used as those would be overkill for palisades and normal earth walls. Most likely a few breached will be made and the Dwarven light infantry would be used to storm the areas around the improvised gatehouses. This would let the rest of the army in.
As this is happening, the Elves would split their forces in two, with each group reinforcing the two spurs. These forces would use the typical light infantry tactics the elves would be known for. The legions and auxilia sent to attack each side would be highly motivated and outnumber the defenders in their specific areas. So I think the battles here would be brutal and slow, with the Easterlings taking massive losses on the way. But I think they would be driven off. The defenders on the western spur would probably attempt to sneak around to the secret entrance. The others would probably attempt to move over the gate to the Lonely Mountain, so the two could reinforce each other. Or they could be let in that way.
But the inevitable failure to gain entrance to the gate and prevent breaching of their rear defenses would ultimately spell doom for them. This would be even worse of the breach of the rear defenses occurs before the defeating of the spur defenders. It would not be entirely straight forward though. The Easterlings would be forced to retreat from the spurs. These troops would be pursued with varying degrees of intensity based off how effective they were. Essentially, without total defeat of the defenders, they would be caught between the light infantry on the spurs and the dwarves in the valley below.
But here is where things get interesting. I suspect that the Oblique Order would be attempted to maximize the power of the Moria Phalanx. Which on one hand means decent progress would be made against the defending legions at first. But the phalanx is always weak against flank attacks. It doesn't matter if the Oblique Order is used or not. So with the Moria Dwarves fighting as hard as they can to get to the gate of the Lonely Mountain, they will struggle to reform into the more suitable pike square formations as their flanks get hit.
Which means that there would be a repeat of the Battle of Five Armies. The Dwarves of the Lonely Mountain would be under pressure to leave the protection of their gate to save their allies. But there would be a key difference. In the book, there were 13 defenders. Now, there would be (roughly) 109,000 defenders from all sides riding out. Against a force that started at roughly 50,000 before it started taking losses. So once this happens, it will essentially be the killing blow. Especially when the Lonely Mountain and Iron Hill soldiers will know to leave in pike square formations. The result of this would be a tiny number of the Easterlings escaping. But the rest would be killed or captured.
So, we need to address the eagles here for a second. There would be some who live in the area. A massive army coming to conquer their hunting grounds would not be something they take kindly to. So some would get involved. But the result would basically be an even more lopsided victory. The Lake-town remnants for example would probably wiped out in their ships. This would force the back door attack to be carried out by the forces set up on the far side of the river. Then, the field works would essentially be pointless and obvious targets. When the rest of the Free People arrive, it would be a relative simple matter of mopping up. The Easterlings would have absolutely no hope at all.
Outcome
The most immediate implications here are for Sauron's attack on Gondor. His main reserve was wiped out by this campaign. Pretty much all his best troops were wiped out. He also has nothing to show for it. So Lake-town was burned. That was the only real beneficial outcome. And this did nothing to contain the power of Mirkwood or the Lonely Mountain. The strategic resources of the Lonely Mountain and Iron Hills remain outside of his control. In fact, it is safe to say this would be a total disaster for Mordor. The armies of the region are not left mostly intact, they are now mobilized and motivated to fight Sauron. Sauron now has more enemies, fewer allies and nothing to show for the trade.
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